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Rick Ballard
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Theo, As a practical matter, how are field exercises by the FSA supposed to be handled without racial overtones? If blacks are turned away, there are always Occupoopers who can replace them.
Toggle Commented Mar 12, 2016 on A Few Good Ben at JustOneMinute
Kaleidoscopic would be closer than schizophrenic. Just two views or opinions is far too limiting. We're talking about a mind that is a raging torrent, flooded with rivulets of thought cascading into a waterfall of creative alternatives and susceptiple to changes in barometric pressure, tide cycles and wind direction.
Toggle Commented Mar 11, 2016 on A Few Good Ben at JustOneMinute
Jeff, The negative side for Romney centered at 43-44, indicating a partisan tilt which did not vary much. The positive side variance comes from party coalescence plus acceptance by independents as the "unkbown" Romney was discovered. That will be an interesting metric to watch, given the fact the discovery process won't be involved in a Clinton/Trump contest.
I'm sure the other Trump thug will step forward and confess, thereby clearing Lewandoski. It isn't as if he can't be identified.
"I cannot imagine her making up something like that." She's not. Of course, that's only an eyewitness report from the WaPo reporter.
Toggle Commented Mar 11, 2016 on Building Walls In Europe at JustOneMinute
"Because this is the most significant thing to happen in the world today." It's reasonably significant thing if the main objective of the propaganda organ is to elect Clinton.
Toggle Commented Mar 10, 2016 on Building Walls In Europe at JustOneMinute
"yes, that's fair, however the dialing up to eleventy is excessive" I agree. This is definitely a time to completely soft pedal the fact Trump's campaign manager manhandled a reporter. What is needed in this moment is soft lighting, a nice gauze screen and some Vaseline on the lens lest anyone be upset by a minor assault. She probably needed to be toughened up anyway.
Toggle Commented Mar 10, 2016 on Building Walls In Europe at JustOneMinute
"yes, that's fair, however the dialing up to eleventy is excessive" I agree. This is definitely a time to completely soft pedal the fact Trump's campaign manager manhandled a reporter. What is needed in this moment is soft lighting, a nice gauze screen and some Vaseline on the lens lest anyone be upset by a minor assault. She probably needed to be toughened up anyway.
Toggle Commented Mar 10, 2016 on Building Walls In Europe at JustOneMinute
There is no "clear break" in the polling spreads. The difference between the current 13 point spread shown by NBC/WSJ, the 9 point spread shown currently by ABC/WaPo and the 8 point spread currently shown by CNN/ORC is statistically meaningless. The results for all three polls fall within a MoE of 3. If I were going to pick a pollster attempting herding, it would be CNN/ORC.
Toggle Commented Mar 10, 2016 on Building Walls In Europe at JustOneMinute
Nice day for picking cherries.
Toggle Commented Mar 10, 2016 on Building Walls In Europe at JustOneMinute
CathyF, Congratulations to WonderBoy. That's great news on the fellowship.
Toggle Commented Mar 10, 2016 on Building Walls In Europe at JustOneMinute
Average results of head to head polls taken to date, the number in brackets adjacent to the pollsters name is the number of polls averaged. There is no statistical validity to averaging in this manner. The range of MoE for the 42 polls is 2.4 - 3.5 with the NBC/WSJ averaging 3.3. The only pollster pushing the edge wrt MoE is CNN/ORC wrt Clinton. None of the Trump averages push the MoE at all. ABC/WaPo(3) 49 43 CNN/ORC(8) 52 44 FOX News(8) 46 42 NBC/WSJ(5) 50 40 PPP (6) 46 42 Quinn(9) 46 40 USA/Suff(3) 47 41
Toggle Commented Mar 10, 2016 on Building Walls In Europe at JustOneMinute
The worst polling of the YTD was Michigan on the Dem side. The age demographic model selected wasn't even close and the Millenial's antipathy towards Clinton is rather remarkable.
Toggle Commented Mar 10, 2016 on Building Walls In Europe at JustOneMinute
The NBC/WSJ 51/38 split is within MoE of the WaPo/ABC 50/41 result AND (barely) the CNN/ORC 52/44 split as well as the Fox News 47/42 split. It's obviously not just NBC/WSJ skewing results against Trump. In December Fox obviously collaborated with NBC/WSJ by actually showing Clinton ahead by 11 while NBC/WSJ only had her up by 10.
Toggle Commented Mar 10, 2016 on Building Walls In Europe at JustOneMinute
The evidence for a polling conspiracy against Trump becomes quite clear when a comparison is made between the 2012 RCP averages of Obama/Romney and the currnet 2016 Clinton/Trump matchup. A cursory examination of bounds reveals the pollsters never allowed Romney to drop below 43% in the entire campaign while they expect us to believe Trump has dropped below 41% and is, in fact, at 41% today while four years ago today Romney was at 46%. Using the same precise scientific approach, we find Obama to have been at 48% in 2012 while Clinton is far below him at 47.3% today. The pollsters' conspiracy is risibly obvious and everyone should ignore polling averages from this point on.
Toggle Commented Mar 10, 2016 on Building Walls In Europe at JustOneMinute
OTOH - Ohio happens to be a battleground state and Clinton's GOTV will demonstrate its effectiveness by thrashing Comrade Sanders rather effectively. Jeff mentioned the success of the Democrat ground game in North Carolina wrt new voter registration and Ohio will offer further proof.
"Hasn't she offered them debt amnesty as well?" Of course. There's that tiny little problem with her being considered to be dishonest by the majority of Democrat voters. Comrade Sanders has a very high favorable rating in comparison.
Some consideration might possibly be given to Comrade Sanders' promise to relieve the weight of the Millenial's $1 trillion serf's collar rather than any deep commitment to progressive socialism on their part. Comrade Uncle Bernie's cry to SET MY PEOPLE FREE! has a certain resonance to debt slaves.
Spring break was last week at Ohio State.
Comrade Sanders is getting GE level turnout from the Millenials. The race split isn't enough when coupled with low primary turnout. I would bet black Millenials are also a bit uppity about drivin' Miz DTs. Life will always be a bit difficult for brain damaged drunks.
The disparity between Michigan pre-election polling and the actual results is best ascribed to an unrealistic sample projection. The Monmouth poll was closest to the actual result, although it was beyond the MoE. A comparison between its projected sample wrt age in comparison to exit poll data reveals a substantial underestimate wrt the percentage of younger voters in the population mix. IOW - Comrade Sanders had a very effective GOTV effort in comparison to Clinton and the 81/19 split in the youngest cohort over Clinton in conjunction with the sample/reality mismatch accounts for the vast majority of the polling error.
Potential reasons for Clinton performance in Michigan: 1. Democrat voters disgusted by her dishonesty. 2. Failure of Clinton campaign check to clear into OFA account in a timely manner. 3. FSA members seduced by Comrade Sanders' offer of a bigger free lunch. 4. ?
"I will repeat that I think that Rodham's behavior here, whether criminal or not, should disqualify her from office because the voters should see that behavior as unacceptable." Comrade Sanders' win in Michigan may be evidence that her behavior is, in fact, unacceptable. Her unfavorables may actually be translating to "hell no" votes. I can go along with "Better Red Than Red Witch" as a Comrade Sanders' campaign theme.
"Hard to see how the Clinton systemic reckless negligence is even in the same universe with what Petraeus did." The WaPo already explained it, the NYT and the LAT will explain it again, the broadcast nets will use the template to explain it again and the LIVs will accept the explanation of the regrettable mistake. She won't turn her approval rating for dishonesty around at all and she (with MFM wholehearted support) will regrettably be forced to conduct a somewhat negative campaign regarding her opponents very minor defects while using Fecesbook and Twitter for their intended purpose. She might even lose but it won't be from lack of MFM support.
Dave, The positive Darwinian aspect of playing Chipotle Roulette shouldn't be overlooked.