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Cliff Mass in a Seattle Times article (Jan. 2/3)reports asking Jared Diamond, “You’re an expert on cultural adaptation. Is there any example in the history of the world where there’s a prediction of a major disaster in the future, but people have to invest — they have to sacrifice something now to invest in the future — and they do?” Diamond, Mass said, shook his head and said: “No, no. I don’t think that’s ever happened.’ ”
While my pessimism was major before, current elections may be a blow from which we cannot recover. Those disappointed will not be able to blame themselves, even in part. They will strike out against the system even more powerfully.
I do think that had the election gone otherwise we would have bought a few more decades of stability.
Some Thoughts on the Winter Solstice 2016
Opening on a Hopeful Note I have been named Editor in Chief for the International Federation for Systems Research (Vienna Austria) book series, published by Springer, “Systems Science & Engineering”, previously managed by George Klir. I am deeply honoured to have been asked by the IFSR to head ...
The Public Library system is operating on a sustainable model. It could use more money, and put it to immediate good use. I wish I could think of more, you can't build an economy on a library system.
Social Security, Medicare, and the ACA are doing surprisingly well, but one political party is dedicated to trashing them.
Civilization Collapse 3.0
What is Working? I started a kind of list. I had been tracking a number of institutions (like higher education) and organizations (like the US government) and casually chronicling their growing dysfunction. The list was getting long and the seriousness of the dysfunctionalities was getting extr...
" .. while the rest of Washington journalism has been reheating leftovers ... "
And he even does that well, as VOX currently updates significant older stories.
Julia Ioffe's Piece on Ezra Klein: Hoisted from Others' Archives from Two Years Ago
From my perspective, for a decade now Ezra Klein and his peers have been conducting conducting a master class in how to inform citizens about their government, while the rest of Washington journalism has been reheating leftovers--with the ex-WonkBlog Fred Hiatt-Len Downie-Marty Baron *Washingto...
res Mark 1 fire control computer, spent many hours watching these aboard destroyers off the coast of Vietnam. They were fascinating to watch. They had a great reputation. Ours had a glass table top, and I think that is what they were. In any event electro-mechanical.
Liveblogging World War II: October 23, 1944: Battle of Leyte Gulf
**Wikipedia:** [Battle of Leyte Gulf](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Leyte_Gulf#The_submarine_action_in_Palawan_Passage_.2823_October.29): >As it sortied from its base in Brunei, Kurita's powerful 'Center Force' consisted of five battleships (Yamato, Musashi, Nagato, Kongō, and Haruna), t...
For most of my life I relied on Atlantic for incisive, well written and documented essays. I don't think I ever missed an issue, usually as a subscriber. It was sometimes about ten years ago I started observing cracks and failures. I quit subscribing maybe five years ago, and seldom read an article, too many are simply wrong.
Monday Smackdown Watch: Will Paul Krugman and Company Ever Get an Acknowledgement of Substantial and Elementary Error from Mike Kinsley?
I would not bet on it... Usually the Monday Smackdown Watch is focused on smacking-down me: to feature people who think that I have gotten something wrong, and who want to urge me to mark my beliefs to market. But I am out of candidates. Step up your game, people! So we do what we can: Somewhat m...
Here is why I quit reading Rod Dreher. I read him and David Frum as my 'conservative bloggers'. David, whom I greatly respect, stopped blogging. Now I have none. Any suggestions.
Rod Dreher
The Acorn Incident: Rod mercilessly attacked acorn (as did the NYT), and never noted the dishonesty in those videos
Why he and his son think any preference for blacks is evil.
Pat Roberson etc, Voodoo is evil, and a similar attack on followers of Santa Muerte. Note, I am astounded that I would defend those two folk religions, but fair is fair. A ten minute look at wiki could have moved his post from merely trashing these two, to a little understanding.
Putin as the defender of western cultural values. Egad!
The Duck whatevers as mostly nice guys.
Atheists cannot have a grounding for their ethics, mere subjectivism. No understanding of humans,evolution,history, philsophy etc.
Mid east falling apart Fallujah, and all those US casualties, no mention or sympathy of Iraqi civilians who also died.
Somehow Rod Dreher has chosen to be an intellectual light weight, as well as a genteel bigot.
Rod Dreher: "We'll Use... Racist Social Darwinism!": Thursday Idiocy
Yet More Thursday Idiocy: Outsourced to **bspencer:** Rod D: "I’m not quite sure how to talk about this Rod Dreher post because it’s so bizarre. >It reads as a whiny appeal for liberals to quit being so mean to creationists and fundies. But if you scratch the surface, you’ll find it’s really a th...
"Lying is an initiation into the conservative elite"
I have often wondered if in some way Republican candidates have to show that they will either deny reality or lie in order to be part of the team.
Another dynamic, once you have got people to respond to mailings, from right-wing newsletter mailing lists, for those peculiar and fraudulent offers you have also got them committed to everything else in the newsletter or magazine. You have in a sense, put your money where your mouth is, it may not make that much difference whether you profit or not.
Rick Perlstein: The Long Con: Saturday Reading
**Rick Perlstein:** The Long Con: >Mitt Romney is a liar. Of course, in some sense, all politicians, even all human beings, are liars. Romney’s lying went so over-the-top extravagant by this summer, though, that the New York Times editorial board did something probably unprecedented in their poli...
I was a chaplain in USNR during Vietnam. I was based ashore when those who were in for less than 2 years had basic pay and family benefits raised from utter poverty levels to 'just get by' levels. There was a huge drop in troubled sailors (all guys in those days). A typical case was a car breaking down (bad tires, no gas etc), missing sign in, captain mast and all of the followup. We just didn't see those cases anymore. This all persuaded me that for the most part what the very poor need is just a bit more money.
PS, this does not necessarily apply to drug abusers, mentally ill, or cognitively disabled. They need additional and required social worker help - and don't get it.
'What Happens When the Poor Receive a Stipend?'
The benefits of income supplements for the poor: What Happens When the Poor Receive a Stipend?, by Moises Velasquez-Manoff, Commentary, NY Times: ...in 1996, the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians in North Carolina’s Great Smoky Mountains opened a casino, Jane Costello, an epidemiologist at Duke ...
bakho - this question is somewhat out of the blue, but you seem to know a lot of WWII history.
Getting long range planes to protect convoys early in the u-boat battle seems a no-brainer. I have always wondered if it wasn't some inter-service rivalry that kept a half dozen long range bombers being assigned to convoy duty?
Second, in the Pacific combat forces after hard battles stopped, reformed, incorporated replacements before they went back to combat. In Europe replacements, as I read, were poorly incorporated, suffered needlessly high casualties as a result, and units were less effective.
Rob
ps - I would be willing to exchange an occasional email, can this be done without giving email addresses to all.
Liveblogging World War II: January 16, 1944
Abortion as murder dates to the .... gasp! late 20th century. I understand most Jewish authorities date the beginning of human life to the first breath (from the second story of creation, "and God breathed into him the breath of life..) There is one indirect reference in the entire bible about miscarriage . Contraception is discussed only in one instance in the whole bible. Neither is addressed to the woman nor about abortion or contraception.
Abortion and contraception date back at least thousands of years. Yet not the Torah, not the Old Testament ever imply (The Infallible)God forbade either one of them. Nor did it get recorded in the (infallible) scriptures. Nor did Jesus, nor did Paul, nor did any other New Testament figure.
One would think that serious conservative Christians would assume that had God (nor St Augustine, St Thomas, nor most infallible popes until the last century) would have spoken up had he had a view on the subject. They would not assume that they could, out of whole cloth, invent a new capital crime.
Contraception Extremism and the Right-Wing Bubble: Noted
**Amanda Marcotte:** Contraception Extremism and the Right-Wing Bubble: >When you aim for “mighty rulers of America” and instead land on “squalling baby” as your public image, you screwed up, big time. So what went so terribly wrong for Republicans? If you really want to understand what’s the mat...
I first decided that one should not like Greenspan when he asserted many years ago that 30 year mortgages should be ended, and replaced with adjustable ones. Most poor people I know/knew could not afford the hit of an increase in mortgage payments.
Second, it is the sorts of things that Larry Summers wrote in this review which caused me to be opposed to him as a new chair of the fed.
Two Ways of Looking at a Randite: Hermaneutics **Hermeneutics** of Profound Suspicion vs. Hermaneutics **Hermeneutics** of Goodwill Toward Alan Greenspan Weblogging
Alan Greenspan's publisher did not send me a copy of his new [*The Map and the Territory*](http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1594204810/ref=as_li_tf_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1594204810&linkCode=as2&tag=brde-20). So at the moment I am running on the two different books read b...
There is an irony in the whole tulipmania thing. At a Rotary meeting years ago here in the Pacific Northwest a major tulip grower discussed bulb growing. Holland still has such a lock on the tulip business that regional growers generally need to send bulbs over to Holland if they wanted a market.
Are Commenters on the Tulipmania Rational?: Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds Weblogging
Every once in a while someone is impelled to try to claim that one or the other of the more notorious bubbles in history was in fact not a bubble--that the market was in fact functioning efficiently, that asset prices were equal to fundamentals, that traders were behaving rationally given the inf...
res "I still hate commies", the irony is that the people buying those buttons would only be happy in Putin's Russia.
Back in 2008 I Thought One Reason to Prefer Barack Obama to Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Democratic Primaries Was That the Republican Party Was Less Racist than Sexist...
…and thus that Barack Obama would have an easier time working constructively with moderate Republicans as individuals and with Republican leaders. I have been thinking for some time that that was a bad call. But this makes me realize that it might not have been:
There is a certain parallel with Niall's attack on Keynes. Krugman surely can't know what he is talking about, he doesn't have children. Mankiw is on my list of 'do not trust unless other sources confirm'. But then why bother. Just read the other reliable sources.
The Thoughtful Jonathan Chait vs. Greg Mankiw, Who Appears… Confused... About How One Assesses Determinants of Economic Success
Jonathan Chait: >Greg Mankiw Loves One Percent, Doesn’t Know Why: Yesterday I published a piece calling Harvard economist and Republican adviser Greg Mankiw’s paper “Defending the One Percent” an “embarrassing piece of ignorant tripe.”… I now see that I treated Mankiw’s argument far too generousl...
I have looked for conservative bloggers who were both intelligent and honest. David Frum withdrawing from the blog world was a disappointment. At one time I thought Rod Dreher was a likely candidate. But he has chosen to be an intellectual light weight, and I have come to the conclusion he is not worth the time it takes to read him. If anyone can direct me to an honest intelligent conservative blog I am game.
Rod Dreher vs. Aristophanes on Gay Marriage and the Moral Order: Methinks Aristophanes Wins, 6-0, 6-0, 6-0
Who is more civilized? Rod Dreher, 2013: >Sex After Christianity: Now we’re entering the endgame of the struggle over gay rights and the meaning of homosexuality…. The magnitude of the defeat suffered by moral traditionalists will become ever clearer…. The struggle for the rights of “a small an...
Watch that Benadryl, some of us get paradoxical reactions to it.
'No One Really Believes in Equality of Opportunity'
Ezra Klein on the equality of opportunity: No one really believes in ‘equality of opportunity’, by Ezra Klein: ...Everyone in American life professes to believe in equality of opportunity. But nobody really believes in it. ... You can’t have real equality of opportunity without equality of out...
Anybody read this on The American Prospect? I have not seen a link here, and would be interested in what others on this site may think.
http://prospect.org/article/sex-economics-and-austerity, below an excerpt from the article.
"As Mark Blyth has shown in his new book Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea, the power of arguments for austerity come from the fact that they invoke the traditional moral system of the West, a way of thinking that is rarely questioned because it seems like common sense. Implicit in austerity are all sorts of moral adages: no pain, no gain; suffering builds character; thrift is virtue.
Keynes was able to see through the fallacy of austerity because he didn’t think traditional moral strictures should be uncritically accepted. Rather, he wanted to test these strictures by their consequences. If we follow Keynes’s example, we can use the same critical intelligence that has overturned the prejudice against homosexuality and start challenging the orthodoxy of austerity. No wonder Keynes remains a threatening figure for conservative economists and moralists alike."
Keynesian Economics: The Gay Science?
Niall Ferguson certainly thought so in 1995. Donald Markwell, author of Donald Markwell (2006), "John Maynard Keynes and International Relations: Economic Paths to War and Peace", emails me a copy of Niall Ferguson's 1995 *Spectator* article, with its claim that Keynes's belief in "the ideas co...
I read somewhere yesterday (not sure where NYT?)that Obama chose to add those four words, as it has been customary for some time.
John Roberts Blows It Again!
John Roberts: Please repeat after me: "I, Barack Hussein Obama, do solemnly swear" Barack Obama: "I, Barack Hussein Obama, do solemnly swear" John Roberts: "that I will faithfully execute Barack Obama: "that I will faithfully execute" John Roberts: "the Office of President of the United States,...
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