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For a full explanation of the prolonged stagnation, we must also be aware of the non-monetary effects of Smaug. The presence of Smaug in the Lonely Mountain increased the cost of obtaining information on settlements near Erebor. As such, available information on the area east of Mirkwood was outdated, and the paths network itself became dilapidated leading to a concentration of trade activity around the Forest River.
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Jan 4, 2013