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ruidh
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I don't know anything about the credence stuff, but I do know probability. Bayes' Theorem is useful here. I don't like their notation. I think it causes confusion. I'm going to use H:Heads, Ta:Tails, M:Monday, Tu:Tuesday. So, their T1 v T2 is just Ta. T1 v H1 is M. We are interested in Pr(H|M) -- our posterior estimate of Pr(Heads) given that we're told it's Monday. Mr Bayes tells us Pr(H|M) = Pr(M|H)*P(H)/Pr(M). But Pr(M|H) = 1. So Pr(H|M) = P(H)/Pr(M) Lets look at Pr(M). Pr(M) = 1-Pr(Tu) Pr(Tu)=Pr(Tu|Ta)*Pr(Ta)/Pr(Ta|Tu). But Pr(Ta|Tu)=1, so Pr(Tu)=Pr(Tu|Ta)*Pr(Ta) What is Pr(Tu|Ta)? I can argue that it is 1/3. She gets woken twice on Monday and once on Tuesday. If she has just been woken and doesn't know the day, it's twice as likely that it's Monday than Tuesday if the coin was Tails. Pr(Tu)=1/3*Pr(Ta) If Pr(Ta)= 1/2 (i.e. a fair coin), so Pr(Tu)=1/6 And Pr(M)=5/6 Another way to look at it is half the time you get woken up twice on Monday and the other half the time you get woken up twice on Monday and once on Tuesday Pr(M) = 1/2*1 + 1/2*(2/3) = 5/6 Back to Pr(H|M) = P(H)/Pr(M) Pr(H|M) = (1/2)/(5/6) = 3/5 3/5. Not 2/3. Not 1/2. Your posterior estimate of the likelihood of heads is higher. This bothers people because the coin hasn't been thrown yet. But what if it had been thrown on Sunday and the result hidden to everyone until the time of the second waking? We can talk about the likelihood of that actual coin throw which has occurred. Delaying the throw form Sunday to Monday doesn't change our estimate. But what is I think Pr(Tu|Ta) is 1/2? I think this is wrong, but it leads to Pr(Tu) = 1/4 and Pr(M) = 3/4 Here Pr(H|M) is Pr(H|M)=(1/2)/(3/4) = 2/3 So, I think there is some fuzziness in the presentation of these two gentlemen. A simplistic view could support the idea that Pr(Tu|Ta) is 1/2 -- It's either Monday or Tuesday, isn't it? Two possibilities. but not two equally likely possibilities. This is still counter-intuitive stuff and it's the kind of stuff that makes people tear their hair out at Bayes.
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There's nothing new about privacy and oversharing. I've been on email lists for over a decade and the advice then still holds -- don't post anything you wouldn't mind being taked up on the breakroom wall where you work. Facebook is, at least, an advance over email lists as you have the tools to control where your posts go. You can restrict your posts to friends or friends of friends or even to a small group that might appreciate a quirky joke. II've live art of my life online for a while now and I find Facebook is one of the better resources.
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That's a little overwrought. "New state of matter"? It still seems to be a solid. "Transparent"? -- to very energetic UV light. Not transparent to visible light. I think we still have a way to go before we're ready to cast the windshield of the Enterprise in transparent aluminum.
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Clearly B033 did nothing to the canons, so the moratorium could only have been de facto. D025 sits beside B033 (and the PB and several bishops said as much while debating it) and much more eloquently expresses where we are right now. When we next get the opportunity to consent to a gay partnered bishop, the moratorium would either end or continue. Clearly, some on the left will take D025 as permission to consent. But no one will be able to pretend that the effect of the confirmation on the Communion won't be an issue in the discussion.
Toggle Commented Jul 15, 2009 on Wait..., what? at Entangled States
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I am firmly committed to the Episcopal Church, but I do feel that we will be greatly diminished if we find ourselves outside of the Communion.
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I was pleased when I read the resolution before hearing any of the spin. Having staked out a position in the center it expressed everything I wanted said. Perhaps I'm alone with the drafters in this.
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So, tell us about teen magazines. How does one get anointed? Is this all the doing of publicists? Did they recycle generic publicity photos or did you get your own Tiger Beat photo shoot?
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So, tell us about teen magazines. How does one get anointed? Is this all the doing of publicists? Did they recycle generic publicity photos or did you get your own Tiger Beat photo shoot?
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