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The article I mentioned above by Barry Saxifrage is not behind a paywall as he does not charge anything to publishers for use of his articles. It is his way of contributing. His graphs on CO2 accumulation are very important as they show that atmospheric CO2 is rising ever more quickly despite lower energy use in many countries. Where is this CO2 coming from?
one graph shows the increases up until very recently. The black bars at the top of the right hand of the graph are the recent numbers. Scary?
Last two years average increase 3.0ppm, last five years 2.5 ppm, 1996 to 2006 2.0 ppm increase.
http://www.nationalobserver.com/2017/04/10/opinion/atmospheric-co2-levels-accelerate-upwards-smashing-records
PIOMAS April 2017
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Just like last month, there haven't been any major changes, and that's good, because it means things ...
Here is an amazing article that presents information and interpretation of CO2 data in way that is startling and frightening. Much other global CO2 information understates actual atmospheric levels because of intentionally understated country emissions. The graphs presented are the best I know of.
http://www.nationalobserver.com/2017/04/10/opinion/atmospheric-co2-levels-accelerate-upwards-smashing-records
PIOMAS April 2017
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Just like last month, there haven't been any major changes, and that's good, because it means things ...
One conclusion in the paper
"Another factor is whether more than one rapidly-developing stressor occur together. The Arctic appears to be a “hotspot of change”, says the paper, experiencing very rapid changes in pH, sea surface temperature and oxygen all at once."
PIOMAS March 2017
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: There haven't been any major changes compared to last month, and that's good, because it means things...
Off topic but of interest in survival of Arctic Ocean biota.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/half-of-worlds-ocean-to-face-multiple-climate-stressorsby-2030-study-warns
As usual the Arctic Ocean is the proving grounds for perturbations to biological systems from CC. Ph, Oxygen, Nutrients, Temperature and other factors are exhibiting abrupt changes which individually or in combination affect distribution and abundance of life forms. Changes are occurring very fast. An excellent discussion of world oceans and CC. Not a happy read.
PIOMAS March 2017
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: There haven't been any major changes compared to last month, and that's good, because it means things...
A new study on Arctic ocean Aragonite levels shows increasing CO2 levels are reducing Aragonite levels. The arctic Ocean is the canary of ocean health around the world. Temperatures increase poleward but CO2 (i.e. acid levels) increase from the poles southward. A large percentage of atmospheric oxygen is produced by marine organisms depending on calcium based shells. Shellfish species also. It does not take very much of a shift to cause irreparable harm as the metabolic precursors are in very small concentrations at normal pH levels.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/02/27/scientists-just-measured-a-rapid-growth-in-acidity-in-the-arctic-ocean-linked-to-climate-change/?utm_term=.6a4e62572f4c
and
http://blogs.dw.com/ice/?p=17761
PIOMAS February 2017
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Things just keep getting worse. After this year's trend line went well below all others last month, I...
The word "surface" means just that, it does not mean several kilometres of atmosphere.Equilibrium between two surfaces is significantly different from an atmosphere and an ocean. Perhaps that is part of the misunderstanding?
Global warming 2016: Arctic spin
Here's a great blog post by Tamino that tells this year's Arctic sea ice story and how a few cowards continuously lie(d) about it to their fellow men: Global Warming 2016: Arctic Spin The useful thing about a canary in a coal mine is that it warns you of danger before the danger kills you. When...
Thanks Neven, Happy New Year. In relation to predicting climate and weather under arctic influence here is another good view of present knowledge and knowledge gaps. Three new feedback mechanisms discussed each of which appear to be underway already. My fear is that the feedback loops will supersede anthropogenic causes down the road. Jennifer Francis at her best.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-arctic-is-getting-crazy/
EGU 2017 call for abstracts
Here's a short blog post for all of you out there publishing in the scientific literature (you know who you are). There's little less than a week left to submit your papers to the various sessions organized at this year's EGU General Assembly. The first session I'd like to mention, is one chair...
Thanks Jim. Good that Neven is having a well deserved rest and enjoying building his dream house. Hope he puts out a few photos and explanation of it later.
The 11th Key Science Moment of 2016
Regular readers of the Arctic Sea Ice Blog will be aware that Neven has, not entirely successfully, been "on sabbatical" for a while. During that time assorted inaccuracies about Neven himself and about the state of sea ice in the Arctic have been propagating through both "social" and "mainstrea...
To chill out---
Instead of Atlas Shrugged try The Invention of Nature by A Wulf. It is a biography of Alexander Von Humboldt. The book won countless awards and is hard to put down. Humboldt had a mountain of an intellect and whose positive influence is still felt today two hundred years later. Reading it is sheer pleasure. In combination with a piano sonata by Schubert and Egg Nog it gives warmth and faith in a bleak time.
PIOMAS December 2016
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Well, November definitely was an Oh Jesus-month. Just like during October, the stall in sea ice exten...
Series 2 of Years of Living Dangerously is worth watching or getting the videos from National Geographic, The sessions on water and soil and the oceans are accurate from my understanding and very scary. There are some very vulnerable populations, some in the hundreds of millions. Lethal Impacts over huge areas are in the present or a few years away, not decades. Here in Victoria BC we are experiencing one of the lengthy jet stream curls that go on for weeks now. The temperatures are predicted to be five degrees C below normal for almost a month . Historically they only lasted four or five days. Jennifer Francis is right.
PIOMAS December 2016
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Well, November definitely was an Oh Jesus-month. Just like during October, the stall in sea ice exten...
Another heat wave on the way. https://robertscribbler.com
PIOMAS December 2016
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Well, November definitely was an Oh Jesus-month. Just like during October, the stall in sea ice exten...
Thanks Neven. Great post. What an amazing meteorological event we are witnessing. We really have awakened a dragon. The implication for the jet stream and northern climates are huge.
ASI 2016 update 6: hell and high pressure
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Because of issues with data based on the SSMIS sensor aboard DMSP satellites, I mainly focus on higher-resolution AMSR2 data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA...
Not a pleasant time to be a real or polar bear.
Sorry for the OT, back to lurking.
2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2
So, the storm has been raging for a while now. The latest Environment Canada weather map shows it's at 984 hPa. According to this tweet by PhD climatologist Brian Brettschneider a IABP buoy from the University of Washington measured a lowest central pressure of 966.5 hPa, which is somewhat lower...
There is an article today in the Guardian regarding the extensive ice loss caused by particulate matter (dark snow) causing melting.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jul/05/dark-snow-speeding-glacier-melting-rising-sea-levels
ASI 2014 update 4: high times
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
Robert Scribbler has an excellent post on high water temperatures surrounding the arctic which is reflected in the rapid loss of ice.
http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/07/01/arctic-sea-ice-extent-testing-new-record-lows/
High pressure is also predicted for the next days.
He also has and excellent update on el nino with high water temperatures and another Kelvin wave propagating in the western pacific.
It looks like we are in for a rocky ride this summer and fall with a double whamy of low ice and a big el nino. Nature is on a rampage. Hang on for the ride.
ASI 2014 update 4: high times
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
Year round arctic sea ice much earlier than thought discovered by magnetite in sediment.
Thishttp://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/year-round-arctic-ice-cooled-earth.html
Looking for winter weirdness 2014
There has been some stuff in the past 2 months that could be linked to erratic jet stream behaviour - which in turn could be influenced by Arctic sea ice loss - like a series of storms battering Europe's Northwest, such as the St. Jude storm at the end of October, followed in December by Xaver, ...
Good comparisons of arctic temperature anomalies for this week and other years. http://cci-reanalyzer.org/CR_blog/CR_blog.php We have a 7degC anomaly happening.
Looking for winter weirdness 2014
There has been some stuff in the past 2 months that could be linked to erratic jet stream behaviour - which in turn could be influenced by Arctic sea ice loss - like a series of storms battering Europe's Northwest, such as the St. Jude storm at the end of October, followed in December by Xaver, ...
The difference between a weather event being caused by climate change and a weather event being affected by climate change may be in the percentage of change in the event. These days, all weather is affected by climate change so where do Meteorologists set the bar for weather to be caused by climate change? Any experts out there?
Looking for winter weirdness 2014
There has been some stuff in the past 2 months that could be linked to erratic jet stream behaviour - which in turn could be influenced by Arctic sea ice loss - like a series of storms battering Europe's Northwest, such as the St. Jude storm at the end of October, followed in December by Xaver, ...
My thanks and year end best wishes to Neven and all the contributors to this unique blog. There is nothing like it on the web.
Merry christPIOMAS
Santa Claus was worried that his home would soon disappear (it won't, it's safe in Walmart for the time being) and decided to look for information on Arctic sea ice. After all, the best thing you can do when fearing something, is try to understand it. Santa read and thought and read some more f...
Dominik
I like your calculations, they show good imagination and perseverance. Others may have considered this but your numbers are simple and understandable from common sense. Sometimes this is missed by complex systems.
The Way paper is fraught with complexity and extrapolations but fills a big gap in our present understanding.
The 'hiatus' and the Arctic
There's a new research paper out that will probably set the blogosphere ablaze in coming days, especially the fake skeptic part of it. Why? Because it espouses a theory that explains the slowdown in the rate of temperature rise of the past decade and a half (depending on your starting point). A...
Neven. I add my thanks for your time, effort and good manners to those already expressed.
Bob
Arctic ice loss and armchair scientists
John Abraham, known as the dragon that slew the Viscount and an excellent climate science communicator, approached me a while ago with a couple of questions concerning the blog and Arctic sea ice in general. He turned it into this ego-inflating article on the Guardian website: Global warming, A...
Polar Bears and Cyclones, not a pretty picture. Mostly I can distance myself from what is happening but sometimes not so much.
Third storm
Are we getting used to this? After the persistent cyclone in May and June, and the spiffy, but short-lived cyclone of two weeks ago, the Arctic is visited by yet another intense storm that goes below 980 hPa. In fact, according to Environment Canada it is currently at 976 hPa, which is lower tha...
3.1
Others have probably noted that the record melt last year came about because of a lengthened linear decline in extent. The linear decline continued for three to four weeks longer than other years. This is easily seen in the extent graphs for the period from August 1st through into early September. In other years the melt slowed and the graphs started turning several weeks earlier. No doubt this is a result of more heat in the system and thus a longer melt season. There is no reason to think that this has changed this year. Weather still has a major effect on melt rates but transferred heat from the tropics via currents and air currents will continue to extend the melt season by several weeks both spring and fall and thus result in frequent record melts. This year, the length of the melt season as determined by stored heat in the system will determine whether we have a new record or not.
Crowd-Source Prediction of September Sea Ice Extent (July report & call for August predictions)
In mid-June through early July, participants on the Arctic Sea Ice (ASI) blog posted 82 individual predictions for the mean NSIDC September Arctic sea ice extent. The median value of these 82 predictions was 3.2 million km2, with an interquartile range (approximately the middle 50% of prediction...
Naming giant cyclones sounds like a great idea if there are enough of them. So far we have only had one though so what if there aren't any more or if they occur once in five years? There might be a bit of egg on the face of ASI blog.
The Naming of Arctic Cyclones
The Arctic is about to welcome another big cyclone. Though probably not as large, intense and long-lasting as last year's Great Arctic Cyclone, it is rather intruiging to see a cyclone of similar magnitude occur so soon after the last one. It makes one wonder whether the Arctic will be seeing mo...
sq km 3.14159 seems appropriate under the mathematical constraints of atmospheric and oceanographic conditions at this time.
Crowd-Source Prediction of Minimum Arctic Sea Ice
How does the collective wisdom of Arctic Sea Ice blog participants compare with expert scientific analysis in forecasting the September sea ice extent? This question seems worth exploring with a crowd-source experiment. You are all invited to submit, as comments to this post, your best guess for...
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