The article I mentioned above by Barry Saxifrage is not behind a paywall as he does not charge anything to publishers for use of his articles. It is his way of contributing. His graphs on CO2 accumulation are very important as they show that atmospheric CO2 is rising ever more quickly despite lower energy use in many countries. Where is this CO2 coming from? one graph shows the increases up until very recently. The black bars at the top of the right hand of the graph are the recent numbers. Scary? Last two years average increase 3.0ppm, last five years 2.5 ppm, 1996 to 2006 2.0 ppm increase. http://www.nationalobserver.com/2017/04/10/opinion/atmospheric-co2-levels-accelerate-upwards-smashing-records

Here is an amazing article that presents information and interpretation of CO2 data in way that is startling and frightening. Much other global CO2 information understates actual atmospheric levels because of intentionally understated country emissions. The graphs presented are the best I know of. http://www.nationalobserver.com/2017/04/10/opinion/atmospheric-co2-levels-accelerate-upwards-smashing-records

One conclusion in the paper "Another factor is whether more than one rapidly-developing stressor occur together. The Arctic appears to be a “hotspot of change”, says the paper, experiencing very rapid changes in pH, sea surface temperature and oxygen all at once."

Off topic but of interest in survival of Arctic Ocean biota. https://www.carbonbrief.org/half-of-worlds-ocean-to-face-multiple-climate-stressorsby-2030-study-warns As usual the Arctic Ocean is the proving grounds for perturbations to biological systems from CC. Ph, Oxygen, Nutrients, Temperature and other factors are exhibiting abrupt changes which individually or in combination affect distribution and abundance of life forms. Changes are occurring very fast. An excellent discussion of world oceans and CC. Not a happy read.

A new study on Arctic ocean Aragonite levels shows increasing CO2 levels are reducing Aragonite levels. The arctic Ocean is the canary of ocean health around the world. Temperatures increase poleward but CO2 (i.e. acid levels) increase from the poles southward. A large percentage of atmospheric oxygen is produced by marine organisms depending on calcium based shells. Shellfish species also. It does not take very much of a shift to cause irreparable harm as the metabolic precursors are in very small concentrations at normal pH levels. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/02/27/scientists-just-measured-a-rapid-growth-in-acidity-in-the-arctic-ocean-linked-to-climate-change/?utm_term=.6a4e62572f4c and http://blogs.dw.com/ice/?p=17761

The word "surface" means just that, it does not mean several kilometres of atmosphere.Equilibrium between two surfaces is significantly different from an atmosphere and an ocean. Perhaps that is part of the misunderstanding?

Thanks Neven, Happy New Year. In relation to predicting climate and weather under arctic influence here is another good view of present knowledge and knowledge gaps. Three new feedback mechanisms discussed each of which appear to be underway already. My fear is that the feedback loops will supersede anthropogenic causes down the road. Jennifer Francis at her best. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-arctic-is-getting-crazy/

Thanks Jim. Good that Neven is having a well deserved rest and enjoying building his dream house. Hope he puts out a few photos and explanation of it later.

To chill out--- Instead of Atlas Shrugged try The Invention of Nature by A Wulf. It is a biography of Alexander Von Humboldt. The book won countless awards and is hard to put down. Humboldt had a mountain of an intellect and whose positive influence is still felt today two hundred years later. Reading it is sheer pleasure. In combination with a piano sonata by Schubert and Egg Nog it gives warmth and faith in a bleak time.

Series 2 of Years of Living Dangerously is worth watching or getting the videos from National Geographic, The sessions on water and soil and the oceans are accurate from my understanding and very scary. There are some very vulnerable populations, some in the hundreds of millions. Lethal Impacts over huge areas are in the present or a few years away, not decades. Here in Victoria BC we are experiencing one of the lengthy jet stream curls that go on for weeks now. The temperatures are predicted to be five degrees C below normal for almost a month . Historically they only lasted four or five days. Jennifer Francis is right.

Another heat wave on the way. https://robertscribbler.com

Thanks Neven. Great post. What an amazing meteorological event we are witnessing. We really have awakened a dragon. The implication for the jet stream and northern climates are huge.

Not a pleasant time to be a real or polar bear. Sorry for the OT, back to lurking.

There is an article today in the Guardian regarding the extensive ice loss caused by particulate matter (dark snow) causing melting. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jul/05/dark-snow-speeding-glacier-melting-rising-sea-levels

Robert Scribbler has an excellent post on high water temperatures surrounding the arctic which is reflected in the rapid loss of ice. http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/07/01/arctic-sea-ice-extent-testing-new-record-lows/ High pressure is also predicted for the next days. He also has and excellent update on el nino with high water temperatures and another Kelvin wave propagating in the western pacific. It looks like we are in for a rocky ride this summer and fall with a double whamy of low ice and a big el nino. Nature is on a rampage. Hang on for the ride.

Year round arctic sea ice much earlier than thought discovered by magnetite in sediment. Thishttp://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/year-round-arctic-ice-cooled-earth.html

Good comparisons of arctic temperature anomalies for this week and other years. http://cci-reanalyzer.org/CR_blog/CR_blog.php We have a 7degC anomaly happening.

The difference between a weather event being caused by climate change and a weather event being affected by climate change may be in the percentage of change in the event. These days, all weather is affected by climate change so where do Meteorologists set the bar for weather to be caused by climate change? Any experts out there?

My thanks and year end best wishes to Neven and all the contributors to this unique blog. There is nothing like it on the web.

Dominik I like your calculations, they show good imagination and perseverance. Others may have considered this but your numbers are simple and understandable from common sense. Sometimes this is missed by complex systems. The Way paper is fraught with complexity and extrapolations but fills a big gap in our present understanding.

Neven. I add my thanks for your time, effort and good manners to those already expressed. Bob

Polar Bears and Cyclones, not a pretty picture. Mostly I can distance myself from what is happening but sometimes not so much.

3.1 Others have probably noted that the record melt last year came about because of a lengthened linear decline in extent. The linear decline continued for three to four weeks longer than other years. This is easily seen in the extent graphs for the period from August 1st through into early September. In other years the melt slowed and the graphs started turning several weeks earlier. No doubt this is a result of more heat in the system and thus a longer melt season. There is no reason to think that this has changed this year. Weather still has a major effect on melt rates but transferred heat from the tropics via currents and air currents will continue to extend the melt season by several weeks both spring and fall and thus result in frequent record melts. This year, the length of the melt season as determined by stored heat in the system will determine whether we have a new record or not.

Naming giant cyclones sounds like a great idea if there are enough of them. So far we have only had one though so what if there aren't any more or if they occur once in five years? There might be a bit of egg on the face of ASI blog.

sq km 3.14159 seems appropriate under the mathematical constraints of atmospheric and oceanographic conditions at this time.