A "brilliant" mind (Stiglitz, allegedly) that can't comprehend the failures of government is hardly brilliant, is my view. Arrogant, yes. Brilliant? No.

"I predicted to an economist friend (David Henderson) during the first year of the Obama administration that before he left office in 8 years we will experience 1970s style double digit inflation and double digit unemployment." Well, that's mid-January 2017. Three more years to go. I see a distinct possibility that you'll win. Kotlikoff is on the money with his debt calculations. This is basically a ponzi game and barring a miracle, the trajectory is downward for US, not upward. True, you should have agreed not just to unemployment but to some measure of standardised unemployment (that counts for those who drop out). I'd not be too despondent about your chances, though. Sleep well. Keynesian delusions are just that. Even Keynes would not agree with American policies were he alive today.

Richard, I almost choked when I read this: "I think that ultimately everything is attributable to luck, good or bad." I'm afraid it is one thing to attribute weights to "luck" and "effort", but another to discount it so comprehensively. Such an approach completely eliminates the need for any economic science. It would imply that whether Bill Gates earned $1 or $1 trillion, he would produce the same. It would also justify communism. Need I say more to point out total absurdity of your assertion?