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Bernard J.
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Over the next few months I suspect that many of the ice metric trajectories (but certainly not volume...) will head back into the spaghetti, to be trumpetted by the Denialati as evidence that all is well. If it's not already been done, it might be useful to have a post that scuppers any attempt at pulling the wool over the eyes of the unknowing, by explaining the physics of winter ice formation, and why its areal/extent trajectories at this time of year are not expected to display the same extreme loss (at least for the near future) that is occurring with summer Arctic ice. Such a post would be heavily linked-to over the next six months.
Espen at September 17, 2012 at 15:15. Sadly, I think that there's insufficient time and resourcing for an orderly relocation effort, when those days in the near future soon enough arrive. However... I do volunteer Watts, Lindzen, Spencer, Bastardi, Morano, Plimer, Carter, Monckton and a host of other Denialati to go to the affected regions and assist in any way that they are able, as a very partial penance for consciously and actively participating in the unnecessary destruction of the planet's climate. They will of course be required to wear names badges.
L. Hamilton, 11 April 2011 at 01:16: ...the data don't yet hint whether Arctic ice will end with a bang (exponential) or a whimper (Gompertz) There is quite a range of sigmoid curves (at least 8 that I can think of), partly defined by how many parameters they require for definition, so the whimper might occur in a register other than Gompertz. It's worth keeping this in mind in case the future trajectory doesn't seem to want to go Gompertzy... Having said that, I have a particular fondness for the Gompertz curve as a result of using it for a lot of my growth descriptions for my postgrad work. It has a number of characteristics that permit it to depict well the characteristics of biological growth, and to do so with minimum parameterisation. I'm guessing that will likely apply nicely to Arctic Ice melt if the melt eventuates as sigmoid: if not Gompertz, a version of a Richards curve would almost certainly do the job well, aided and abetted as it is by its surfeit of parameters.
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Mar 20, 2010