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Neven, In the short term it's [MASIE] probably the most accurate product, because human operational analysts look at a large set of data sources to determine where the ice edge is. Thanks for the reply. Why, then, has MASIE been little mentioned here while positing ASI is in 3rd place for the last few weeks? Having been following MASIE and noting the disparity, I wondered if this product had been abandoned for some reason, in favour of the less precise long-term SI coverage products. MASIE has had 2016 leading or equal to 2012 over the last few weeks, so why were other products referred to and MASIE ignored when MASIE is supposedly more accurate for near real-time observations of extent? Today again, MASIE has sea ice extent lower than 2012. What am I to make of that?
Toggle Commented Aug 22, 2016 on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
I've been following the MASIE 4k res chart for a while now, and 2016 has fairly consistently been below 2012 recently, until just the last few days. How much store should I set in this product? I understand the advice that it should not be used for long-term analysis, but is it also not very useful for the short-term?
Toggle Commented Aug 20, 2016 on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Activation emails came through an hour after submission. I've registered my vote at ASEF. I'll try not to pester the board with too many questions.
Hey Neven, I wanted to put a vote in for Sept extent at ASIF, but no activation email has been sent when I tried to register at the forum. Clicked to get another email sent. Nothing comes after half an hour, not even in the junkmail section. If it's ok with you, I'd like to register my vote for the 4.25 - 4.5 range.
Bobcobb, no idea why M's predictions are generally sooner than the rest. They received a lot of attention in the press and skeptic blogs (for the most part), but I always considered them, for the little that's worth, too pessimistic. The observed rate of decline is a serious concern in any case. Ice-free (<1 mil sq/km) is not a question of if. More interesting for those outside the zone is what that means for global change and weather patterns. People decades old inside the zone are witness to clear changes already.
I remember the order of estimates from Maslowski and team. 2007: "Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007," the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC. "So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative." 2011: "Scientists who predicted a few years ago that Arctic summers could be ice-free by 2013 now say summer sea ice will probably be gone in this decade. The original prediction, made in 2007, gained Wieslaw Maslowski's team a deal of criticism from some of their peers. Now they are working with a new computer model - compiled partly in response to those criticisms - that produces a "best guess" date of 2016.... "In the past... we were just extrapolating into the future assuming that trends might persist as we've seen in recent times," said Dr Maslowski, who works at Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California. "Now we're trying to be more systematic, and we've developed a regional Arctic climate model that's very similar to the global climate models participating in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments," he told BBC News. "We can run a fully coupled model for the past and present and see what our model will predict for the future in terms of the sea ice and the Arctic climate." And one of the projections it comes out with is that the summer melt could lead to ice-free Arctic seas by 2016 - "plus or minus three years". Maslowski made two predictions, one in 2007, and another in 2010/11 - ice-free by 2013 (possibly conservative), then ice-free by 2016 +/- 3 yr.
September average is more precise, but as I mostly deal with the monthly sea ice data values, I'm used to calling them anomalies - which can be a single (ie averaged) value for any period (eg, ENSO indices have 3-month anomalies, or monthly or annual anomalies for global temperature data).
Toggle Commented Oct 2, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hans - September monthly average. It's listed on the data pages.
Toggle Commented Oct 2, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
NSIDC has posted the September extent anomaly: 4.63 million sq km
Toggle Commented Oct 2, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice