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Alberto Silva
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"A rational comparison would be between the cost and the current net worth of the world" You are 100% right. I was fooled by the typical use of GDP as the global standard. Please, could you tell me how may be computed that the "current net worth of the world"? I have not seen any analysis that make an estimate of that, so I wonder what value is it(and I have asked that many times, and nobody could give me an answer), and as a function of what variables could be computed. Also, to compare apples with apples will be great to see the estimated costs of climate change damages as a function of time, to compare them with the estimated future GDP.
Toggle Commented Jul 26, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
This Nature comment is explicit: "The release of methane from thawing permafrost beneath the East Siberian Sea, off northern Russia, alone comes with an average global price tag of $60 trillion in the absence of mitigating action — a figure comparable to the size of the world economy in 2012" The sentence in bold says that the net present value (NPV) of the damage done by just the methane release alone (ignoring all the other climate change and ocean acidification impacts)could be roughly big as the world economy (measured as GPD). I do not have access to the study on which was based the Nature comment so I cannot make a fully informed opinion, but just the possibility that the costs of climate change could be so big should be a headline in all newspapers of the world. I just wonder if the discount rate(the rate at which the future revenues or losses are discounted to account for the time value of money, that in turn is a function of economic growth)could go below zero if the world economy slows down and then shrinks due to the cumulative effect of environmental damages. So far, I do not know a study that includes the "negative growth scenario" as a possibility.
Toggle Commented Jul 26, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
WUWT predicting a minimum below 2007? Wow, even the deniers are melting now that reality has hit them in their faces, ... there is still hope for this planet and all its inhabitants!
Looking at the last SSMIS Sea Ice Maps from University of Bremen: http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/ssmis/arctic_SSMIS_nic.png Doesn't remain in the Chuckchi Sea/East Siberian Sea zone a vestige of the ice that once formed the here so-called "stronghold" ?
Toggle Commented Aug 12, 2012 on ASI 2012 update 9: stormy weather at Arctic Sea Ice
ECMWF is now predicting a Dipole Anomaly after the storm ends... http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weather/ecmwf/2012080800/arctic/ecmwf_mslp_arctic_loop.php (no comment)
Toggle Commented Aug 8, 2012 on Arctic storm part 3: detachment at Arctic Sea Ice
"we have an example of a (minor) negative feedback from the loss of sea ice, as the coccoliths take up some carbon dioxide into their skeletons" Sadly this is not true. The chemical equation of calcification (the reaction that coccoliths use to make their Calcium Carbonate shells) is: 2 H2CO3-(ac) + Ca++(ac) = CaCO3(s) + CO2(g) + H2O(l) 2 bicarbonate ions + 1 calcium ion = calcium carbonate + carbon dioxide + water See here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_water With more coccolitophore blooms, expect greater emissions of CO2 from seawater (actually less net carbon sequestration into the oceans). Sorry for the bad news, Timothy Astin. Fortunately this is a very slow feedback, unlike the much faster ice/snow albedo feedback that is now turning the map of SST anomalies into a bloody scene.
Have you noted that NSIDC extent, unlike IJIS, is at a record low? http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png It would be interesting to make a CAPNE (Cryosphere-today Area Per NSIDC Extent)and compare it with CAPIE.
Toggle Commented Aug 4, 2012 on New CAPIE record at Arctic Sea Ice
Broken link in "less than the number of fingers of a hand": https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas
This counter-clockwise flow of ice to the Atlantic via Fram Strait is stunning. That drifting buoys are recording the death of the more thick and old sea ice. If this massacre continues maybe Maslowski was right about the date of the end of the "death spiral" : 2013. In any case, unless a monster volcanic eruption triggers a short-term global cooling event, we can be almost sure that the number of years with still some significant summer sea ice are less than the numbers of fingers of a person (and likely less than the fingers of a hand.
Ouch! http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html
Toggle Commented Jul 14, 2012 on Polls July 2012 at Arctic Sea Ice
It seems like a Dipole Anomaly will be forming in the next 7 days: http://policlimate.com/weather/current/gfs_mslp_nh.html Given how thin has become the ice in Laptev/East Siberian Sea according to the US Navy model (see here) a big dip in ice area and extent is imminent. This "forecast" will of course be not accurate if the NCEP GFS weather forecast and US Navy HYCOM ice thickness model are not.
Toggle Commented Jul 4, 2012 on Fringe fries part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
The Polynya in the Laptev Sea has not grown appreciably in the last week. However, the US Naval Research Laboratory is showing widespread thinning of sea ice Maybe most of the melting in the last two weeks was hidden as thinning (instead of area reduction), giving the false impression of a non-melting sea ice. If this is true, could it be, now as the weather is shifting to a negative Arctic Oscillation and a Dipole Anomaly , that a strong extent and area reduction in Laptev Sea ice is inminent? Or instead the US Naval Research Laboratory thickness map reliability is poor, so that one cannot use that map to forecast the pattern of melting?
With Sea level pressure in the Arctic Ocean forecasted to rise over the next week things should accelerate there as the direct sun radiation hits the sea ice and the clockwise rotation of the Beaufort Gyre starts again. I am not sure however that sea ice melt will accelerate much because (at least according to current forecasts) the pattern will not be a typical Dipole Anomaly but a high pressure over and the Artic Ocean AND the Barentz-Kara Sea, with low pressure above Siberia. However is still a change from a positive to a negative Arctic Oscillation,a transition that in other years had accelerated melt. What do you think?
Daniel Bailey, could you give some links to those science-based websites?
Anyone has any idea what will happen with the arctic weather in a few days? Will that low inside the AO persist, or will be repplaced by highs? What are the chances of the Dipole Anomaly to form again? Do anyone knows if these forecasts are trustworthly?
It's my impression seeing this: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2012172.terra.2km or the Russian Summer is shattering the Siberian Ice like ground beef?
Daniel Bayley: In my link there is the description: "NCEP GFS 0.5x0.5 degree MSLP 8-day Forecast Animations". It looks like an improved version of those maps: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/glbcir.quick.shtml The latter website, NOAA map room, is known to me by already some years.I used it to follow heat waves, the Arctic Dipole, Trade Winds,etc. In particular, when there weak highs instead of strong highs in the Eastern Pacific(i.e. a negative pressure anomaly in the Tropical/subtropical Pacific), it's likely the birth of a Kelvin wave (and if that continues, an El Niño, a persona non grata in my country, Peru. I do not followed the link to the blog, and effectively, is a typical right-wing anti-science blog. I however trust NOAA. The "policlimate" maps are from NOAA or are fake?
Those forecasts: http://policlimate.com/weather/current/gfs_mslp_nh.html do NOT show a clear dipole in the next few days. Does anyone knows the source of that forecasts and how much trustworthy is that source?
WhiteBeard: In summer insolation in the Poles is bigger than in the equator, according to this NASA article: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/EnergyBalance/page3.php This is incredible, but true. What keeps the poles so cold even in summer is the high albedo of snow/ice. If they melt, then...
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Jun 15, 2012