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IIRC, Maslowski's projection for an effectively ice-free state around 2016 (2013-19) was in a May 2006 presentation (to the AMS? the link I had is now stale) and therefore was not in reaction to the 2007 melt, or even the 2006. Subsequent media reports are mostly asking whether the projections are on track or not. It's perfectly human to be impatient to see the results come in, I'm certainly prone to that myself. Every crash makes such predictions seem prescient, every rebound, panicky. Objectively, two of the seven candidate minima are now known. There's plenty of time to have at least one more crash and rebound before October 2019 is over. Even if one suspects the projection will fail (I don't - I simply don't know which way it will go), scientifically, one shouldn't declare it failed until the results are in.
Great report, Neven, thanks for putting so much energy into covering all these topics. Maybe it's worth linking this post from the "Best of Blog" sidebar for all the useful links it contains? I'll definitely have to keep dipping back in over the summer. Is anyone else impatient to see what the rest of this decade will bring? :-)
Toggle Commented Apr 28, 2015 on EGU2015, my impressions at Arctic Sea Ice
Excellent map, Wipneus, deserving of a prominent home on the long-term graphs page. Many thanks for all the hard work behind it. Bfraser The paper said "increased area" and crandles demonstrated "near-constant volume". I bet both are correct. Seconded.
Toggle Commented Jan 16, 2013 on PIOMAS January 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Neven, welcome back. Hope you had a good break. And of course, the IMS sea ice extent graph, that has also reached a record low (again, meaningless, as this product is for navigational purposes and ship safety, and not climate research). I wouldn't go quite as far as meaningless. I know it's not as good a proxy for the heat content as, say, the area is; but only in the same way that area is not as good a proxy as volume. And it documents an important regional effect of the changing climate: the Arctic is more open to navigation than ever on record. The political, commercial, and resource-extraction implications are just beginning.
Really good post, especially the discussion section. time was limited and there may well be better schemes With none of the approaches able to rule out a summer melt-out in the next few years, time is rather limited for all forecast attempts. No doubt the best hindcast will come from a physical model, but the statistical answers are available here and now. So, thanks for a brave, reasoned contribution and post.
Toggle Commented Jul 11, 2012 on July SEARCH Contribution at Arctic Sea Ice
Phil, There's a white + in a small blue background at the top-right corner of the map image. Click to expand a choice of map styles. Good luck.
Thanks. I remembered the question and discussion, but not the answer!
crandles wrote: Look at how small the multiyear entrance zone is compared to the exit zones from the safe or stay put area. Look, too, at first-year ice extending almost to the pole. Is it fair to say that the Russian arctic is now a seasonal-ice climate? And does this pose a difficulty for the 'grey circle' of no-coverage from various satellites?
Slightly OT: Eisenman and Wettlauferb have a nice approach to graphing the "negative ice" that sometimes shows up in discussions of trend and extrapolation.
this year's area and extent has been trailing 2007 so closely, despite having less favourable conditions than then Wasn't that how a poster here rephrased the no-tipping-points-in-the-models issue: that the first three years' recovery is all you get, because the trend catches up.
I'm finding it remarkably difficult to see the "arms" of older ice reflected in the concentration map. Is the relationship between ice age and resistance to melt breaking down?
I'd like to second Wipneus' point. Maybe a thought experiment with two beakers will help ... Add 10g of ice at 0C to 100ml of water at 9C, and wait. The last of the ice will hang around for quite some time, because the eventual equilibrium is (if I've got my figures right) only barely above the melting point. Melting will tail off as the temperature difference between ice and water becomes smaller and smaller - the difference declines by three-quarters as melting proceeds Compare adding 10g of ice at 0C to 100ml of water at 90C. The ice will melt out at a (very nearly) steady rate, with the beaker nowhere near equilibrium when the last ice melts - the temperature difference declines less than 10% and thus melting barely slows at all. (Wipneus - have I understood you right?)
Toggle Commented Apr 7, 2011 on Trends in Arctic Sea Ice Extent at Arctic Sea Ice
Maybe I'm confusing myself here, but ... A logistic or Gompertz curve will project a smooth, well-behaved transition between two equilibirum states. But the physical mechanism here is about the presence of additional heat in the Arctic, and not directly about the absence of ice. So I don't see anything wrong with a curve that forecasts negative (implied) ice - it just means that the heat will really result in something other than melting. How different might the Gompertz fit look if the final state were effectively, say, minus 2 million km^2?
Toggle Commented Mar 25, 2011 on First forecasts at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks for a great post. And especially for offering are there any other interesting analyses that people would like to see? I've read Stoat's suggestion that increasing open water will provide a negative feedback that makes ice-free periods unlikely any time soon. At a glance, I don't see two volume growth regimes in these graphs (fast growth while open water lasts, followed by slower growth under ice cover), but - would proper stats analysis show it? And, as the open-water period for the central basin is very short, might other basins' data, with lower extent at minimum, show a change in rate of volume growth before/after the end of open water? Thanks again for a thought-provoking piece.
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Mar 6, 2011