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Jim Hunt
South West England
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Thanks for the mention Neven. On the specific topic of the "IPCC crisis meeting" Ed Hawkins had this to say on Twitter: @StottPeter Yes - I told David Rose on the phone and by email on Thursday about the IPCC process and lack of 'crisis' meeting.— Ed Hawkins (@ed_hawkins) September 8, 2013 Dan - I didn't get much joy out of flogging a dead horse on the Telegraph web site either, so I resorted to Twitter too: @haylesdixon Where did your "60 per cent increase" and "Almost a million square miles" #SeaIce numbers come from? See— Jim Hunt (@jim_hunt) September 8, 2013 I've received no answer to that question as yet however, from either the Mail or the Telegraph.
Toggle Commented Sep 10, 2013 on IPCC crisis meeting at Arctic Sea Ice
Philip - Well I'm discussing it because Tenney asked a question about it! My latest analysis of the "fiction written by obvious amateurs": Given the number of things that David Rose has evidently managed to get wrong in just the first few lines of his article whilst discussing Arctic sea ice, how many more do you suppose he got wrong when he went on to consider "global cooling"?
Toggle Commented Sep 9, 2013 on PIOMAS September 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks Wipneus. The Mail article explicitly states that "A chilly Arctic summer has left nearly a million more square miles of ocean covered with ice than at the same time last year – an increase of 60 per cent" Hence my own calculations weren't based on the 2012 minimum. The "million more square miles" is certainly not even in the right ball park. A helpful skeptic has confirmed that there are certainly not "20 yachts... left ice-bound" in the Northwest Passage. Of course, and please forgive my use of the Anglo-Saxon vernacular, when it comes down to volume 160% of sweet Fanny Adams is still sweet FA.
Toggle Commented Sep 8, 2013 on PIOMAS September 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
My apologies for flogging a dead horse in public. The Mail Online has now seen fit to publish my 2nd and 4th comments, but not my 1st and 3rd:
Toggle Commented Sep 8, 2013 on PIOMAS September 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
I've dug out the latest daily numbers. Do these sound right? PIOMAS Day 243 3.480 => 5.077 CT 0.6794 2.35009 => 3.62455 NSIDC Day 249 3.558 => 5.236 IARC-JAXA Sep 7th 3312446 => 4893380 For some strange reason they all seem to be under 60%
Toggle Commented Sep 8, 2013 on PIOMAS September 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
How about my second attempt?
Toggle Commented Sep 8, 2013 on PIOMAS September 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Can anyone see any sign of my first attempt yet?
Toggle Commented Sep 8, 2013 on PIOMAS September 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Tenney - David Rose is renowned for reiterating nonsense. How do you suggest correcting his inaccuracies, particularly when he provides no justification for his rash assertions apart from a couple of cherry picked images? I endeavoured to do so on a previous occasion and my online comments never made it through moderation. I've been following events in the Northwest Passage this year and the bit about "more than 20 yachts that had planned to sail it have been left ice-bound" is yet more stuff and nonsense. Will you explain to him all about the subtle differences between extent, area and volume, or shall I?
Toggle Commented Sep 8, 2013 on PIOMAS September 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
This is from the University of Hamburg rather than Bremen, but tells much the same story: There's even a hint of a "Laptev Bite" this year as well.
The latest Arctic Sea Ice News is out. A Real Hole Near the Pole. It may seem contradictory for a polynya-like opening to form near the pole while temperatures are lower than average, but it highlights the complex interplay between the ice, atmosphere, and ocean.
As the Guardian reported here in the UK earlier this month Jan:
Toggle Commented Sep 4, 2013 on New year, new Healy expedition at Arctic Sea Ice
NJSnowFan - Séb and Vincent (and Babouchka!) were picked up by the Admiral Makarov earlier today. See: Whilst conditions have been a bit cloudy recently, I'm blowed if I can see any evidence of the Admiral Makarov's passage on Worldview or AMSR2. Perhaps you will have more luck?
Would you believe that the Barents is biting back? Click the link to explore on NASA Worldview. Click on the image for a larger version.
NJSnowFan - As luck would have it I'm keeping very close tabs on the position of the Babouchka. Her tracking device is currently still turned on. Why don't we perform a joint experiment? Let's see if we can find any evidence of the Admiral Makarov's approach and/or subsequent departure from any of the satellites? In the meantime please stop repeating yourself. I think we've all got the idea by now.
Pjie2 - I'm with Patrice on this one. Use Worldview 7-2-1 to examine closely an area that's been largely cloud free for a few days. On the 28th there's certainly some cloud around, but other than that the polynyas look ice free. Stepping through until the 31st reveals some paler structure appearing in the polynyas. New ice seems the likeliest explanation to me. Sam - I'm with you that area and extent have become highly deceptive. What might be an improvement though? How do you attach a number to "ice quality"? How might one go about measuring and/or modelling the vulnerability of the ice visible via my link, this year and/or next year and the year after?
Toggle Commented Sep 1, 2013 on Hole at Arctic Sea Ice
Whoops! Between the "first year rubble" at the top and the "multi year pack" at the bottom.
Toggle Commented Aug 30, 2013 on Hole at Arctic Sea Ice
A clear view through the clouds this morning confirming the picture painted by the microwaves yesterday: Note the difference between the
Toggle Commented Aug 30, 2013 on Hole at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks for the enlightening images Neven. I might have to quibble with you slightly about the Northwest Passage not opening up this year though. On the southern route a variety of craft have made it through the choke points at Cape Bathurst and Bellot Strait. The most recent passage past the former that I'm aware of is David Scott Cowper in Polar Bound: Whether he can make it past the latter and out of the eastern end remains to be seen!
Toggle Commented Aug 30, 2013 on New year, new Healy expedition at Arctic Sea Ice
@John - Sure the remaining ice was configured differently last year. Here's another "video" covering the same few days from 2012: Since the Hamburg 3.125 km AMSR2 wasn't around last year that was generated from the Bremen 6.25 km AMSR2/ASI images. From a climate change perspective isn't something like an "integral of albedo" a more relevant metric than the ones you mention? How is that related to the combination of integrity/area/extent, and what difference (if any) might two packs instead of one make? @SeattleRocks - I agree things look rather "different" this year compared to last. It's not yet clear to me that they are "much better".
Toggle Commented Aug 29, 2013 on Hole at Arctic Sea Ice
seattlerocks - What do you make of the open sea getting so close to the NP from the Pacific? Will that matter?
Toggle Commented Aug 29, 2013 on Hole at Arctic Sea Ice
Leaving AMSR2 animations aside for the moment, it's well worth checking out Worldview today and having a good look around. Much of the Arctic is visible, albeit through thin cloud over large areas. There's a very pretty swirl of cloud on the Pacific side. Opposite that there's lots of holes, both large and small. Here's a quick preview: Please note the change of scale compared to the aqua tinted image Neven posted above.
Toggle Commented Aug 27, 2013 on Hole at Arctic Sea Ice
By special request, an animated GIF revealing the increasing "Barents bite" over the last 5 days, assembled from the University of Hamburg's 3.125 km AMSR2 concentration images: It stops after a bit. Try opening it in a new tab or window of its own for an action replay.
Toggle Commented Aug 26, 2013 on Hole at Arctic Sea Ice
The "hole" on the prime meridian is visible today in Worldview:
Toggle Commented Aug 25, 2013 on Hole at Arctic Sea Ice
Blaine - It may look as though they arbitrarily (and recently?) inserted a 100% concentration ice sheet, but what the Navy say happened was that the NAVGEM forced model "has been initialized from NOGAPS-forced ACNFS in June 2012 and run up to date." If that's the case surely the modelled ice sheet should already be pretty well "weathered" by now?
Toggle Commented Aug 24, 2013 on ASI 2013 update 7: cold and cloudy at Arctic Sea Ice
A-Team - Posey et. al. (2010) in "Validation of the 1/12° Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System" covers in some detail how ice thickness data were used when validating the ACNFS model post 2007, but also states in the "Recommendation" section that: "As thickness observations become available over time, further sensitivity studies and possibly assimilation of thickness data, will be incorporated into ACNFS." I took that to mean the "satellite altimeter observations" weren't currently being used for some cunning CryoSat-2 style calculations. They also state that: "NCODA is initialized using the 24 hr ice concentration forecast from the prior day CICE output and then assimilates daily ice concentration data from SSM/I.... The ice analysis from NCODA is directly inserted along the MIZ. The NCODA ice analysis is then blended with the model’s previous day forecast in areas with concentration up to 40%. NCODA ice analysis values above 40% are not used in the assimilation." It looks as though things like a potential "North Pole Hole" aren't really on the Navy's radar screen?
Toggle Commented Aug 23, 2013 on ASI 2013 update 7: cold and cloudy at Arctic Sea Ice