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Sourabh Jain
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Great work Neven.
"In recent years, the Arctic has dodged bullets and cannonballs. It looks like this year, it may have to dodge a nuclear bomb."
I have been following your coverage of Arctic's melting season for almost six years now, but it is the first time I noticed such 'alarmist' language from you Neven.
It really means that things are far worse for Arctic than it looks. Recent century drops in extent confirms that view.
June 2019, one hell of a month
Before the latest PIOMAS data are published, somewhere next week, I wanted to present an overview of all the things that have been happening in the Arctic these past couple of weeks, and what they may mean for the outcome of the 2019 melting season. You've guessed it, I'm going to be talking ab...
Thanks Neven.
I generally resist to comment on ASIF, if I do not have anything useful to say, but this time I just couldn't believe the 'scary' outlook. It really feels like a scene from a climate apocalypse movie.
Your post does put things in perspective and shows how rare current events are, even when compared to past four or five years. If current trends continue, I guess that would prime ice for building 'THE' melting momentum we have even seen.
Talk about unprecedented
In the preceding post on Global sea ice minimum records getting broken for the third year in a row, I mentioned how the situation on the Pacific side of the Arctic was quite unprecedented, with the sea ice graph for the Bering Sea showing a sharp downturn (and even a small one for the Chukchi Se...
Thanks Neven for the post.
One benefit of such drastic changes is that you no longer have any difficulties in reading such charts,as every year is competing to become an outlier.
I remember that last year too the FDD chart looked very similar and it felt like 2016 was way off. But, now when compared to 2016-2017, it feels like 2015-2016 was not "abnormal".
PIOMAS February 2017
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Things just keep getting worse. After this year's trend line went well below all others last month, I...
Thanks Neven and Hans for clarification.
I thought drainage was from right to left. Therefore, i got confused. If you watch it for the first time, it looks like May7th had a loss and 1st June, things returned to normal.
Jakobshavn calves a(nother) big one
Greenland glacier guardian Espen Olsen informed us a couple of days ago on the Forum that Jakobshavn Isbræ - Greenland's fastest glacier draining 6.5 % of the Greenland ice sheet - has had another big bite taken out of its southern branch recently. Espen made this animation to show the differenc...
Neven,
I think date on the second image is incorrect. It shows May 7th 2014.
I don't know if time also got scared of climate change and started moving backwards. :)
Jakobshavn calves a(nother) big one
Greenland glacier guardian Espen Olsen informed us a couple of days ago on the Forum that Jakobshavn Isbræ - Greenland's fastest glacier draining 6.5 % of the Greenland ice sheet - has had another big bite taken out of its southern branch recently. Espen made this animation to show the differenc...
Hey Guys
You might find this video interesting. It talks about ice dynamics of polar ice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8ntyZh0vbY
Ice pack in full
Arctic Sea Ice Blog commenters come up with all kinds of ways to make sense of or visualize what's going on with the ice pack, tweaking satellite data, 'declouding' images or compiling animations. In this blog post I want to show a couple of those efforts. Commenter Danp opened a thread on the A...
Hey Rob,
I am a newbie. So, this may be stupid question.
Should you not use 'area' instead of using 'extent' here.
" Extent - Arctic sea ice area". Wouldn't Area be a better indicator?
Should it not be:
Snow + Area - (Extent - Area)
Problematic predictions 2
This comment by long-time commenter Rob Dekker was so good and elegant that I decided to squeeze it in as a follow-up guest blog to the first Problematic predictions post. ----- In Bill's excellent overview of correlations here, he used 'area' earlier as a predictor for 'area' later (area->are...
Sourabh Jain is now following Neven
Jul 2, 2013
2 million km2 or below.
Its my intuition based on ice volume trend provided by PIOMAS. However, March cracks/Beafort gyration have redistributed the ice. So, ice is thicker at places where it melts anyways. Therefore, there is a higher chance that it will melt this year at places which had thick ice until last year.
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/04/20122013-winter-analysis.html
Again, I also read in a blog posted on this site that there is no longer a barrier to prevent warm pacific ocean from getting into arctic ocean.
So, based on above factors, my intuition is that the ice will melt extensively this summer.
Crowd-Source Prediction of Minimum Arctic Sea Ice
How does the collective wisdom of Arctic Sea Ice blog participants compare with expert scientific analysis in forecasting the September sea ice extent? This question seems worth exploring with a crowd-source experiment. You are all invited to submit, as comments to this post, your best guess for...
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May 3, 2013
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