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speedplane
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"If there is a 1 percent annual probability of a disastrous drilling accident or financial collapse, the probability that the disaster will occur any time in the next 10 years is only 10 percent." If the probability of a disaster within a given year is 1%, then there is really only a 9.56% chance of a disaster in ten years. 1 - (1-.01)^10. You can't just add them up. Oh probability.
Toggle Commented Jul 16, 2010 on The Gulf Oil Leak—Posner at The Becker-Posner Blog
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