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Rash of upsets focuses on home teams, lowers home court advantage to 3.00

The upset bug has hit college basketball with almost every top team losing at least once this week. In the AP Top 25 the losers were: #2 Iowa State lost at West Virginia, 64-57 #4 Alabama lost at home to... Continue reading

Posted 2 days ago at SportsRatings: College Basketball

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Big SEC home court upsets: Ole Miss over Alabama; Missouri beats Florida

The SEC just keeps delivering big games and big upsets. Last night Florida and Alabama—both projected 1-seeds in the Dance Chance—were upset at home, by Missouri and Mississippi respectively. Missouri and Ole Miss were seen as middling SEC teams despite... Continue reading

Posted 6 days ago at SportsRatings: College Basketball

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2024-24 Week 10 Dance Chance: Florida boots Tennessee from top seeds

Two new 1-seeds this week. Auburn remained on top with two hard-fought SEC road wins, though star Johni Broome had another injury scare. Duke beat Pitt and Notre Dame at home and joined the Tigers—whom they beat earlier this year—as... Continue reading

Posted Jan 13, 2025 at SportsRatings: College Basketball

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Florida wipes out Tennessee, 73-43: how does it change power ratings?

Florida took an early lead and didn't look back, crushing the final D-I unbeaten Tennessee 73-43. It was supposed to be a battle of the unbeatens but Florida lost a few days ago at Kentucky, meaning that both the Gators... Continue reading

Posted Jan 7, 2025 at SportsRatings: College Basketball

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2024-2025 Week 9 Dance Chance: Illinois joins 1-seeds

Tennessee is now the only undefeated team in the nation but they're not the Dance Chance's overall 1-seed, in fact they slipped to #3 despite a very solid 24-point win over Arkansas. Auburn matched that with 16-point win over Missouri,... Continue reading

Posted Jan 6, 2025 at SportsRatings: College Basketball

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2024-2025 Playoff "Final Four": Notre Dame still favorite, Ohio State very close #2

Ohio State's strong win over Oregon moved them very close to Notre Dame in terms of being the favorite to win it all, but the Irish win over Georgia—and the fact that they have an easier opponent next week—make them... Continue reading

Posted Jan 3, 2025 at SportsRatings: College Football

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Week 8, 2024: Slow final week to 2024, but a new 1-seed

There were two days last week with no games but enough happened to give us a new projected 1-seed and it is...Houston! Surprise, it wasn't another SEC team, no matter how much Auburn and Tennessee seem to have 1-seeds locked... Continue reading

Posted Dec 30, 2024 at SportsRatings: College Basketball

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2024 Week 7: SEC eyes two 1-seeds, three 2-seeds?

Another week, another Dance Chance projection with Auburn at the very top. A 41-point win over Georgia State and an 18 point win over Purdue didn't do anything but solidify the Tigers' position as the overall top 1-seed. They're very... Continue reading

Posted Dec 24, 2024 at SportsRatings: College Basketball

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2024 National Title Odds at round of 8: Notre Dame takes over as favorite, Texas, Ohio State close behind

Notre Dame moved into the pole position among Playoff teams, replacing Texas as the overall favorite while Ohio State remained 3rd but improved their odds substantially while also replacing the Irish as #1 in Strength. In other words, if every... Continue reading

Posted Dec 22, 2024 at SportsRatings: College Football

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Fury-Usyk II: Live summary (not detailed!)

Less formal than round by round as I also watch the college football playoffs Rounds 1-3: Close, call them all 10-10 (see how detailed I'm being?) Fury might have edged the majority of these but not terribly clearly Round 4:... Continue reading

Posted Dec 21, 2024 at SportsRatings: Boxing/MMA

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2024 Week 6: Auburn still on fire; Big Ten logjam in the middle of the pack

Auburn's 91-53 dismantling of Ohio State, on a technically neutral court, rates as the most impressive game of the season, edging past Gonzaga's opening-week 101-63 dusting of Baylor. The Tigers obviously keep their overall 1-seed and are already nearly lock-status... Continue reading

Posted Dec 16, 2024 at SportsRatings: College Basketball

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2024 week 5: Can the SEC get three 1-seeds?

Auburn tasted defeat for the first time, falling to Duke 84-78 last Wednesday. But the Tigers already have wins over Houston and Iowa State and rank near the top of the Strength power rating, so a road loss to another... Continue reading

Posted Dec 10, 2024 at SportsRatings: College Basketball

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2024 National Title Odds at round of 12: Texas, Notre Dame have best odds

Here's the first cut at National Title Odds. Note that most of the top-Strength teams do not have a first-round bye, but it's not very important since they face a weak foe and play at home. For example, Texas and... Continue reading

Posted Dec 8, 2024 at SportsRatings: College Football

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Committee update: Little change from sunday

Hardly a change since 11/30/2024 as the Committee largely reflects the AP poll, which we used on Sunday to project the final top 25. We show SMU with around a 2.7% chance of staying in with a loss, giving Alabama... Continue reading

Posted Dec 3, 2024 at SportsRatings: College Football

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Week 4 2024-25 recap: Auburn rolls, UConn collapses

Week 4 and things are really starting to happen in college basketball, mainly due to all the tournaments around Thanksgiving time that pit the best from all conferences. In some ways it's the best that college basketball gets until March... Continue reading

Posted Dec 3, 2024 at SportsRatings: College Basketball

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2024 week 14: Alabama in; Notre Dame the national title favorite?

With just the conference title games left the field is almost completely set: 9 teams are virtual locks and six more are playing for the last three spots. With about 99% certainty Oregon, Texas, Notre Dame, Penn State, Georgia, Ohio... Continue reading

Posted Dec 1, 2024 at SportsRatings: College Football

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2024-2025 Week 3 Dance Chance Update

Let's see what happened last week, up until Sunday's games (the 24th): Auburn and Gonzaga solidified their hold on the 1-seed; Auburn's only game was a 102-69 win over North Alabama while Gonzaga beat San Diego State 80-67 and Long... Continue reading

Posted Nov 27, 2024 at SportsRatings: College Basketball

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Committee update elevates Miami, hurting Indiana (?)

Weird, sometimes simulation results are weird and unexpected. Indiana looked like a lock before the Committee results when the AP placed them at #10. Then the Committee put them at....#10 and they slipped out of the "top 12" ! The... Continue reading

Posted Nov 26, 2024 at SportsRatings: College Football

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Will Kansas make it to a bowl game after all? What about Louisiana-Monroe?

This is a tale of two teams, one (Kansas) whose bowl situation looked hopeless and another (ULM) who seemed to have a bowl in the bank. Their fortunes have completely reversed since mid-season of 2024. Kansas Jayhawks bowl odds Kansas... Continue reading

Posted Nov 26, 2024 at SportsRatings: College Football

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Week 13 Post-mortem: Finally some chaos! Bama, Ole Miss tumble

Ohio State vs. Indiana was the marquee game but that result was overshadowed by upset losses by Alabama and Mississippi. Who benefitted most from their fall? First we should answer, who got hurt most and in that case, it's clearly... Continue reading

Posted Nov 26, 2024 at SportsRatings: College Football

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2024-25 Week 2 Dance Chance update

Week 2 and we have two new #1 seeds, Gonzaga and UConn. Gonzaga still riding the wave of their big win over Baylor, UConn moving up after posting larger-margins wins over their low-ranked opponents. Auburn and Houston stay put at... Continue reading

Posted Nov 20, 2024 at SportsRatings: College Basketball

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Why do we have the Committee? Redux; post-meeting week 12 projection

Let's just use the AP poll, since the Committee sometimes makes a worse version of it these days. AKA, post-Committee meeting projected Final Top 25 for week 12, 2024: Both the AP and Committee had do decide how to handle... Continue reading

Posted Nov 20, 2024 at SportsRatings: College Football

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Week 12: Georgia punches their ticket, puts Tennessee on the bubble

Georgia beat Tennessee 31-17 Saturday, prompting a re-shuffling of our projected Final Committee Top 25. The Bulldogs are almost a certain pick now at 98.3%, up 37.2% from last week when they were on the "bubble" (which is a thing... Continue reading

Posted Nov 17, 2024 at SportsRatings: College Football

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2024 2nd Committee Rankings: Miami fares better than in AP, Georgia (almost) stays in field

The Committee has spoken once again, and there are few surprises. Enough to update our Final Top 25 Projections, though. Miami did fare better with the Committee (#9) than with the AP voters (#12), so the Canes are a lot... Continue reading

Posted Nov 12, 2024 at SportsRatings: College Football

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2024 Week 11 Playoff Picture: Georgia stumbles, Miami tumbles

Ole Miss beating Georgia and Miami losing to Georgia Tech were the big stories last week, obviously. Ohio State is again at #1, back where they were after week 2 and week 6. They're on track to win a rematch... Continue reading

Posted Nov 11, 2024 at SportsRatings: College Football

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