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Steve Bloom
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Well crap, not time to say much tonight. It was a very long day and I need to be there early tomorrow so I don't miss Judah Cohen's 8:00 AM talk. It is truly a firehose of information there. I've missed so much but even so probably have enough material/contacts/ideas for a couple dozen science posts. Maybe I'll do more than the six or so I was planning on, but if so they'll have to be considerably spread out in time. Anyway, we'll see. There were all sorts of science specifics I won't mention, but one thing that really crystallized for me today is how obsessed those scientists are with getting more and better data and how much effort they put into it. It's kind of amazing, really. Ironically Anthony Watts managed to spend his week there last year and never seemed to notice. How did that happen... OK, just one science thing: It may have been mentioned here before although if so I missed it, but there's a very interesting new proxy, IP25, that basically uses the diatoms that live in the sea ice (those I had heard of at least) to track the location of the ice edge going back in time. That definitely gets a post. I should also mention, in case folks missed it, that there was a big Greenland ice sheet melt press conference earlier in the conference which I didn't attend since I expected it would get extensive coverage (and has). Summing it up, on top of the recent news that the WAIS is melting like crazy, the GIS is also melting like crazy. Imagine that. Tad Pfeffer, where are you now? Finally, tomorrow will be an even longer day for me since the Pliocene mafia have invited me to come to dinner with them. I am given to understand that Secrets Will Be Revealed. Again, any coverage ideas are very welcome. Tomorrow's starting to look pretty blocked out, but Thursday and Friday are wide open.
Toggle Commented Dec 17, 2014 on In the meantime: CryoSat at Arctic Sea Ice
Short on time, so I'm just leaving this as a comment rather than attempt a first-time post. I'll have more time this evening and should be able to add some details about posters/talks. This morning I'll be getting in a little late and will be attending "Enhanced Climate Changes at High Latitude" in Moscone West 3005 from 10:20 to 12:20. After that I'm not sure where I'll be, but immediately afterwards definitely would be a good time to meet up for anyone who wants to do so. My phone cell number is 510 blah 393 blah 7233 (blahs to hopefully avoid harvesting). Probably text is best. I'll make a point of checking in here after the morning talks (i.e. in four or five hours) to pick up any further suggestions. Once again, the scientific program can be found here. My suggestion is to use keyword and author searches to find what you're interested, and once there have a look at what else is in that session. Yesterday following the registration process (thanks again to Larry for facilitating this), I spent the entire day doing posters. The unfortunate thing about this conference is that even within a relatively narrow range of interest there are always at least a couple things going on at once, so much is necessarily missed. The poster hall is huge (well, this was one of two huge poster halls -- I haven't even seen the other one yet), with many subject matter sessions packed in cheek by jowl. I would have liked to look at some of the others, but doing partial justice to just cryosphere and paleo took me the whole day. I learned a lot and gathered lots of material for potential posts, so that was good. I was quite tired and distracted, so managed to miss Larry's talk (apologies). I'll be in touch with him to catch up on that since it definitely deserves a post here. Fish, those circulation changes are probably my primary focus in terms of current climate, so I'm already on it. Unfortunately, as confirmed by conversations with a number of scientists yesterday, the relative lack of Arctic region ocean current data, especially for the deep ocean, makes that part tough. My main priority at the conference is the atmo component, especially the research growing out of Jennifer Francis' ideas, and in particular Judah Cohen's big troll for attendance, er, that is, important announcement. Hopefully he hasn't oversold it! I hadn't previously thought about the acceleration you mention, although it sounds like a natural consequence of polar amplification. I'll see what I can see on it, especially as regards any sea ice impacts. One thought -- if the polar cell is accelerating, wouldn't that tend on average to increase pressure at the descending branch and decrease it at the ascending branch? In any case, I'll ask about this even if I don't see anything specifically on topic. Finally, everyone here will be pleased to know that I caught an Arctic specialist carelessly using the r-word yesterday and got prompt agreement from him (with a couple colleagues listening in) that using it is bad, bad, bad.
Toggle Commented Dec 16, 2014 on In the meantime: CryoSat at Arctic Sea Ice
Cool, Larry, thanks so much.
Toggle Commented Oct 29, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
There was a bunch of live and archived video last year and my understanding is that they were planning on expanding that this year. Probably it's just too early. I too have been working through the abstracts and AFAICT there's tons more cryosphere material than last year. For one such topic (I forget which one exactly) there are seven poster sessions, and I don't recall seeing more than four before. Even if I limit myself to sea ice past present and future, which I won't because the ice sheets and circulation changes are more interesting and more important, there's a vast amount of material, so it's clear I'll have a hard time covering things. I'd also like to do a few full-up interviews of scientists, mainly focused on where they think things are headed. Once I can confirm who's actually going to be present and is willing to be interviewed, perhaps we can develop questions on the blog. I'm starting to get the feeling I may not be able to actually write much during the conference other than daily updates of the high points, but as it's a slow time of year for ASIB it seems like it should be fine to string out the posts over a couple weeks. A-Team, if you do show up hopefully you can uncloak long enough to say hello. Your secret identity is safe with me. :)
Toggle Commented Oct 29, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
I'm pretty sure that what they mean is blog posts analyzing breaking science news, which obviously won't be a problem to demonstrate. I suspect the purpose of this requirement is to exclude aggregators. I'll email you later. Thanks much to both for the compliments!
Toggle Commented Oct 28, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Neven, I am possibly willing to attend the AGU fall meeting and write posts on the sea ice-related material if the blog meets the qualifications, and of course if you're willing. These are the science blogger requirements (from this page): "Includes writers for recognized, editorially-independent blogs that have been in existence for at least one year, have a readership of at least 3,000 unique visitors or sessions per month, and regularly produce original news content in the Earth and space sciences. Blogs should have editorial freedom from advertising sponsors and sponsors must be clearly identified. Corporate-owned blogs and personal blogs are ineligible for press credentials. "Must present evidence of three (3) bylined news posts in the Earth and space sciences in the past year and a screen shot of blog analytics covering the period of the past year (i.e. Sept. 2013 – Sept. 2014) showing the number of unique visitors or users per month. (Click here for an example.) AGU’s Public Information Office may, on a case-by-case basis, weigh a bloggers’ social media following in determining eligibility for registration." On the plus side I think I'm up enough on the science to know what sessions to prioritize and which questions to ask, plus I wouldn't have any expenses since I'm local. On the minus side I'd be blowing an entire week on this, which is why I'm a little hesitant. I've also never written posts as such, although plenty of long comments. But on the whole I'm sure it would be an interesting experience. Let me know what you think.
Toggle Commented Oct 28, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
"Recovery" is true, Neven? Also, that first link (all I bothered to look at) doesn't seem to support JC's claim.
Toggle Commented Sep 5, 2014 on Ever sailed to 85N? at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks, Wayne and John. I took a minute to eyeball the recent progress of the bite toward the pole, and at this rate it would be there within a couple of weeks. On the one hand that seems strange for so late in the season at that latitude, but on the other hand that warm water probably isn't bothered much by slightly freezing temperatures. IIRC the bite has not been seen to do this before. It 2012 it got to only about 80N at minimum. A bite as such wasn't even apparent at that point, but that may be because the sides had all melted back as well. This behavior seems very striking to me. Could it be an indication of a lot more warm water entering the Arctic, at least in that region? With enough of that, weather unfavorable to melt will cease to matter much.
Toggle Commented Aug 22, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
Just to note that per Bremen the Laptev bite has now crossed 85N and AFAICT doesn't seem to be slowing down much.
Toggle Commented Aug 22, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum at Arctic Sea Ice
"I've argued recently that we're at an inflection in winter volume because first year ice growth is taking over from multi-year ice volume loss." There's been a long-standing argument that some degree of inflection in loss is to be expected simply because ice at higher latitudes is easier to form and harder to melt. Given that the mobility of sea ice points to the inevitability of big multi-year losses once substantial ice-free areas encroached on the central basin, your formulation seems to be a different way of saying the same thing.
Toggle Commented Aug 2, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 6: slow times at Arctic Sea Ice
A pause? Srsly? Based on that graph? You're a fraud or deranged, Osty.
Toggle Commented Jul 26, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
This is very interesting indeed. Collapsed pingo or not, I've never heard of such a thing before. It's located in the Yamal Peninsula, which IIRC is not part of the yedoma region since it has some history of glaciation, and as the report says there'a lot of gas there that could have had something to do with this event.
Toggle Commented Jul 17, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
The thing to remember about soot in the Arctic is that the effect of any increase will be sharply limited by fresh snowfall. If the snowfall is reduced, though...
Toggle Commented Jul 17, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
Bob, how extensive are peat deposits within the boreal forest? Landscape type conversion isn't a small concern, BTW. If I had to point to one thing, it would probably have to be ocean acidification, although that priority may change once the yedoma melts and dries out enough to burn extensively. Rainforest loss and conversion to savanna (with fire a big factor) is probably third on my list. Loss of the boreal forests might be fourth based on present evidence, but there are some other possibilities, in particular loss of shallow Arctic methane clathrates. All of that said, Indian monsoon failure and Chinese desertification would be huge geopolitically although arguably small relative to the global climate system.
Toggle Commented Jul 17, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
Yesterday a location in BC got over 40C and 35C+ temps were registered in the NWT, this because of the current wacky jet. I'm starting to wonder about short-term fire-induced landscape type conversion of the boreal forest. Conversion to what, though?
Toggle Commented Jul 16, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
Please to fix that first tag. TIA.
Toggle Commented Jul 16, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
ICYMI, two recent expert reports from the NAS that just came to my attention: The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions Linkages Between Arctic Warming and Mid-Latitude Weather Patterns, Summary of a Workshop These contain lots of material of interest to readers here.
Toggle Commented Jul 16, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
That was a typo, sorry. The 65 meters on a side is correct for 300,000 cubic meters. That is a vanishingly tiny volume, orders of order of magnitude smaller than what would be needed for a significant effect. "even an artificial anomaly of 1/10th of that would create a significant buoyance differential on the surface, causing a downwelling." Math for this? I find it more than a little ironic that you're asking me. And on a hot, sunny day in that region, how much does surface salinity increase due to evaporation? Also, if the seeding works to any degree, there will be extra fresh water running off into the sea in the same area, right?
Toggle Commented Jun 16, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim, enough open water to the NP for a jet ski to manage? Maybe. Successfully? Not so much.
Yes, although significantly is an understatement since 3000 cubic meters is only about 65 cubic meters on a side. The ocean is a large place. Re the cloud seeding effect, remember that, in addition to the point I made above about the effect probably being pretty local, this is the warm pool. Water is relatively shallow in most places, the thermocline is deep and ongoing evaporation from the surface is massive. The whole idea fails the smell test, IOW.
Toggle Commented Jun 15, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice
jai, 20 tonnes of salt has to be entirely inconsequential, the reason for which you should be able to work out for yourself. Re the cloud seeding, I would like to see a plausible physical rationale that it even has the potential to result in significantly more heat being forced into the ocean. Remember that when it rains in one location there's another, probably quite close in time and space, in which it doesn't.
Toggle Commented Jun 14, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice
Although the AMOC has been slowing of late. I don't understand the current system well enough to know what relationship that has with the overall transport of warmer water into the Arctic, although presumably some. Interesting times.
Toggle Commented Jun 12, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice
Just to note that the Svalbard sea ice paper press release CB linked to concludes "more advanced climate models coupled with observations are needed" to get a handle on the behavior of the currents warming the Arctic. Put another way, there's presently no means of projecting future behavior of these currents, although with continued expansion of the tropics (a fundamental consequence of warming that... wait for it... the models can't get right) "more of that" seems like a safe bet.
Toggle Commented Jun 12, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice
Good article overall, except for the confidence placed in the time needed for the GIS to undergo major loss. So many recent results have upended the ice sheet models that it's going to take years to catch up. Recall, e.g., that the warmer water encroaching on the marine-based ice sheets was not predicted by the models. As a general matter, the models haven't been able to manage the polar warming we *know* from paleoclimate research (e.g. Lake E sediment pollen and the Pliocene megafauna on Ellesmere Island) occurred the last time CO2 levels were in the present range. What else have they missed? Someone should do a timeline of the scientific understanding of ice sheet response to warming, recalling that no more than 15 years ago the general assumption was that even the marine-based ice sheets would respond very slowly. Lots of glaciologists seem still stuck in that paradigm. Anyway, I suspect the graph would take on the shape of a familiar sporting implement.
Toggle Commented Jun 12, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice
ARkStorms actually have about a 75-year return period, Jai. We are quite overdue, except it's unknown to what degree climate change may have affected the likelihood of these events.
Toggle Commented Jun 10, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice