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Steven_737
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hello Duncan in this post you provide wave 4 statistics by Zoran: http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/06/double-dip-countdown.html?cid=6a00d8341c563953ef0134846dde77970c#comment-6a00d8341c563953ef0134846dde77970c was the wave 4 retracement computed as a percentage of wave 3 OR as a percentage of the drop from the top of wave 1 ? thank you :)
Toggle Commented Jul 9, 2010 on A Little Summer Rally at Planet Yelnick
Just for the record; also, to encourage Trader 123 to answer my question regarding his method - setups. As I posted above, I saw the triangle setup during lunch; I was also aware of the bullish sentiment "upside momentum not giving up easily!" "market not ready yet to retrace" "just above support at ema(20) on 5 min chart" I also saw the trade trigger around 13:11 EDT, trigger timing as anticipated before 13:15 EDT (due to triangle). I also had the target at ES R2 =1050 (and 61.8% retracement at ES 1051.3 ) and the first target to lighten up on the trade at mid-R1-R2 1043.75 in confluence with a fibonacci projection at ES 1043.5 Having the bias that w4 was about to fizzle, I was on the sidelines and thus did not take the trade; I was following the motto "when in doubt stay out". :):)
Toggle Commented Jul 7, 2010 on Canadian Real Estate Imploding? at Planet Yelnick
Thank you Michael; I will look into that. cheers :)
Toggle Commented Jul 7, 2010 on Canadian Real Estate Imploding? at Planet Yelnick
"I think YOU are a poor excuse for an analyst/trader" We are not having a contest here; we are just posting opinions about the wave count. I have never claimed any rating. As a matter of fact, I often post to ask Duncan his opinion on my wave count. Why are you so annoyed? I don't recall criticizing your posts. As a matter of fact, I have criticized only one post in 2010. "but I wish you well." so do I.
Toggle Commented Jul 7, 2010 on Canadian Real Estate Imploding? at Planet Yelnick
"Really now . . . And just how confident are you that we are in a Wave 4 right here???" If this is not a wave 4, I can take the continuation trades of the bullish trend, when they set up. Granted, I was looking for the exhaustion of wave 4; therefore I did not trade. There is no harm in that. There will be another trade tomorrow. Whoever traded long today, made money. That's nice. In any event, if you don't like Elliott Wave and you keep posting here, one of the obvious reasons is that you want to be asked about your method. So the question is still the same: what is the trading method you use and what is the setup you traded today.
Toggle Commented Jul 7, 2010 on Canadian Real Estate Imploding? at Planet Yelnick
"Typical internet blog filled with people that are far too PARALYZED by ANALysis. Lots of predictions. No real substance." It just happens that those who trade Elliott Waves AVOID to trade wave 4. Since you do have the substance as you claim, go ahead and enlighten us regarding the trading method you use and the setup you traded today. I guess you will use the usual answer to dodge the question: "Too busy managing trades", "too busy scalping", "Elliott wave sucks" what's a "REAL TRADER" like you doing here? WHY are you not subscribing/posting/chatting to the REAL STUFF trading rooms? how come you are not posting your stuff at the "REAL TRADERS' " trading rooms that day-trade stocks OR how come you are not chatting with "REAL TRADERS" at the "REAL TRADERS" trading rooms that go for 1 ES point, maybe 2 when the wind is right? I guess the "REAL TRADERS" trading rooms are not so good after all. :)
Toggle Commented Jul 7, 2010 on Canadian Real Estate Imploding? at Planet Yelnick
Price has reached an important Fibonacci retracement level (50% of wave 3) at ES 1043 and a fibonacci projection at ES 1043.5 R2 is at 1050; R2 is an intraday target that may be the end of w4. Worth noting that the 61.8% retracement of 3 is at ES 1051.3 cheers :)
Toggle Commented Jul 7, 2010 on Canadian Real Estate Imploding? at Planet Yelnick
possible distribution just above support at ema(20) on 5 min chart top of w4 ?? Lunch time by 13:15 we will have more technical evidence...
Toggle Commented Jul 7, 2010 on Canadian Real Estate Imploding? at Planet Yelnick
watching triangle formation on 5 min ES momentum shift under way; upside momentum not giving up easily! market not ready yet to retrace to ES 1027.5~1030.5 (50%~38% zone)
Toggle Commented Jul 7, 2010 on Canadian Real Estate Imploding? at Planet Yelnick
it appears that this rebound leg since 15:25 EDT 07-06-2010 is complete, having a structure a-b-c-x-1-2-3-4-5 cheers :)
Toggle Commented Jul 7, 2010 on Canadian Real Estate Imploding? at Planet Yelnick
update The alternate scenario ES and NQ retraced 78% of yesterdays drop (that started at 10:15 EDT) forming an a-b-c ;
Toggle Commented Jul 7, 2010 on Canadian Real Estate Imploding? at Planet Yelnick
The primary scenario is that wave 4 of (1) is forming its y leg of w-x-y and needs to go to yesterdays high for a flat or to to reach the 50% retracement of wave 3 at ES 1043, SPX 1047.5 to form a zig-zag. The alternate scenario ES and NQ retraced 61% of yesterdays drop (that started at 10:15 EDT) forming an a-b-c ; this implies that wave ii of 5 of (1) is probably complete, unless the price action is going to form a more complex w-x-y.
Toggle Commented Jul 7, 2010 on Canadian Real Estate Imploding? at Planet Yelnick
Of course this could be iv of 3 :) If so, then iv of 3 could be already complete at 10:15 EST top SPX pivot at 1023.75, crossing below is teltale of weakness.
It appears that wave 4 of (1) retraced a little more than 38% of wave 3 of (1) and tested the 1040 level. One may expect that a retracement to ES 1020~1024, SPX 1024.5~1029 is in order. If this is the w of wave of 4 (somewhat unlikely as the correction has already taken 2 days) than the y of 4 will attempt to reach the 50% retracement of wave 3 at ES 1043, SPX 1047.5 cheers :)
usdollar; it is on my charts: macd(3,10,16) on multiple time frames;
Toggle Commented Jul 2, 2010 on Death Cross History at Planet Yelnick
what's that slogan again ??? "Now it is up to you to decide what will occur, and how. "
Toggle Commented Jul 2, 2010 on Death Cross History at Planet Yelnick
OR SPX 999 is the signal to short into iii of 3
Toggle Commented Jul 2, 2010 on Death Cross History at Planet Yelnick
OR perhaps ES needs to touch 1000 to attract buyers ! S1 today is 1008.75 while S2 is at 995.5 SPX= ES + 4.5 approximately Maybe SPX 1000 is what the market has in mind for a bounce...
Toggle Commented Jul 2, 2010 on Death Cross History at Planet Yelnick
Any updates from cycle studies? from Hurst cycles and related periodgrams?? I have the impression that the weak price action today is a wave ii struggling to go higher but not achieving it. If this is correct, this is ii of 3, and iii of 3 is around the corner.
Toggle Commented Jul 2, 2010 on Death Cross History at Planet Yelnick
conclusions stated in above article: what do you think Duncan?
Toggle Commented Jul 2, 2010 on Death Cross History at Planet Yelnick
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-sultans-swap-bp-potentially-more-devastating-lehman
Toggle Commented Jul 2, 2010 on Death Cross History at Planet Yelnick
usdollar Thank you for explaining what the webbot text is all about, (I was only guessing what the words meant - what else was possible?) and providing reasoning for its credibility . If you care to discuss this further, here are a few of thoughts: 1) regarding financial forecasting, there exist a lot of fora and websites, where traders and analysts using several models try to pin point turns in the markets. This is not news to you (LOL). Furthermore there exist analysts that use financial astrology explicitly like Arch Crawford and the Delta Phenomenon people, or implicitly like the Bradley model that is in essence a "sterilized" astrological model. The webbot software collects that information and seeks to find patterns in the predictions or confluence of dates, that are derived by the different models used. 2) Regarding global events, either geopolitical or weather, earthquakes, other physical phenomena, or even elections, there are plenty of astrology websites and blogs that are looking at the astrological patterns and try to forecast these events. There exist also enough scientific fora and politics - business - geopolitics blogs & websites that comment on the respective topics. The webbot software collects that information and seeks to find patterns in the predictions or confluence of dates, that are derived by the different astrology models and/or interpretation logic used. Also to combine - bridge these topics with information and data from scientifically oriented sites, news reporting sites and politics related fora. 3) On several blogs people post messages just to communicate with "web friends" or just to pick arguments and amuse themselves. These messages comment on the forecasts - predictions and to a great percentage do not add valuable information, but are still likely to generate "critical mass" if the topic catches the fancy of many posters - commentators. The webbot software identifies topics of interest, i.e. the hot items in the peoples discussions. Then they present those statistical results using buzzwords - selected by their marketing person - and weird syntax in order to impress their audience. The weird syntax and buzzwords are also useful in not spelling out exactly what the supposed forecast event is. This way every reader can interpret each sentence to his liking and close to his preconceived notions. Finally they do not need a disclaimer (like financial fora or websites), but to be "safe from criticism" they have come up with the slogan: "Now it is up to you to decide what will occur, and how. " Hey good stuff! A Reader's Digest with a twist of predictions! My point of view is that: if one needs financial forecasting, one can read and participate in financial - trading fora and blogs and follow the analysis and forecasts there, while at the same time be informed of how the forecasts are derived. if one needs weather - earthquake - physical phenomena and geopolitics "predictions", one is better served by reading and participating in astrology fora and blogs and follow the analysis and predictions there, while at the same time be informed of how the predictions are derived. Of course reading of scientific websites that address weather - earthquake - physical phenomena and geopolitics is also necessary so as to understand the facts and not to be "fooled" by "extreme" predictions. I suppose that I could add paragraphs on comets and planets that will destroy the earth (Nibiru etc), UFOs, Maya calendar and so forth but I think that I have already described my point of view clearly. What do you think? cheers I would like to read any additional thoughts on this topic. Duncan, it may seem a little off-topic on your blog, but if people that follow Elliott wave analysis and forecasts, "need" predictions from the webbot, then I think it is worthwhile to understand why.
Toggle Commented Jul 2, 2010 on Death Cross History at Planet Yelnick
"Stocks, metals, and the dollar were all down today. How is that possible?" da bear; 4 possible reasons I can think of: 1) shifting from correlations-based trading, because of new realities sinking in; in other words "house traders" realizing that the conditions for the correlation to continue to function are not in place, have changed the model - modus operandi for the computers providing liquidity and quotes 2) anticipation of money withdrawals from mutual funds and hedge funds, proactive liquidation to meet cash demand in some markets regardless of their trend. 3) some wavers (or technicians in general) have a forecast for an interim (?) top in precious metals and USD, therefore taking profits 4) a fluke that happens every once in a while Duncan, what do you think?
Toggle Commented Jul 1, 2010 on Death Cross History at Planet Yelnick
usdollar, can you please say in PLAIN ENGLISH, what the message is and why you think it is credible? "However, the temporal marker of the ranking general in deep shit came from the same data set that produced the israeli mistake forecast" "Many of the critical elements now in place are not able, from a military logistics view point, to be maintained for too long in place before their usefulness degrades below acceptable levels.....therefore, certain conclusions need to be drawn appropriately. " "I had repeatedly thought that the Terra entity involvement within the November tipping point could well be the clue that it was to NOT be horrific, species ending war, but rather would be some giant earth changes such as the Pacific tectonic plate cracking that we are also expecting. Or even, giant radiation from the sun." Perhaps this fellow running webbot has studied linguistics as he claims, but his writing abilities are not supportive of his claim. If the code that he has written to "understand" what is on posters' minds when they type messages on blogs, is as clear, coherent and rule based as his writing, then we should not expect his forecasts to be of any value... and of course "Now it is up to you to decide what will occur, and how. " Prechter, Neely and Hochberg would love to use that line :):) ps. I am not attacking you, I am just saying that I do not see value in the webbot text.
Toggle Commented Jul 1, 2010 on Death Cross Approacheth at Planet Yelnick
"I only hope you're "all in" on the short side, so you can get f*cked and finally learn your lesson." dg you are out of line. On just about every forum you would be banned by now. You OWE us all an apology. If not, then "May the Universe provide you many times what you wish for others."
Toggle Commented Jul 1, 2010 on Death Cross Approacheth at Planet Yelnick