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Glen, We have to disagree here and I think you have misunderstood the nature of the Fibonacci sequence in Agile estimation. We agree it is used to reflect uncertainty but the way it does is by ensuing that planning estimations cannot respond to linear scales of resources. If we simply have geometric progression 1,2,4,8,16 then it looks like you simply have to double the resource to achieve the result in half the estimated time. The Fibonacci sequence prevents this completely and additionally shows the massive knowledge gaps as you move up the Cone of Uncertainty instead of down. TL:DR Summary: Geometric Progression encourages linear scaling. Fibonacci sequence prevents this and protects the team from unrealistic expectations.
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Mar 16, 2015