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4.0 M Km^2
Based on intuition. I think this year's melt will be significant, but it won't reach the level of 2012.
Commented Jul 22, 2013 on Crowd-Source Prediction of September Sea Ice Extent (July report & call for August predictions) at Arctic Sea Ice
Crowd-Source Prediction of September Sea Ice Extent (July report & call for August predictions)
In mid-June through early July, participants on the Arctic Sea Ice (ASI) blog posted 82 individual predictions for the mean NSIDC September Arctic sea ice extent. The median value of these 82 predictions was 3.2 million km2, with an interquartile range (approximately the middle 50% of prediction...
4.3 million km^2
Source: Intuition + Slow start of melting season.
Commented Jun 16, 2013 on Crowd-Source Prediction of Mean September Sea Ice Extent (July update) at Arctic Sea Ice
Crowd-Source Prediction of Mean September Sea Ice Extent (July update)
Each June, July and August, the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) collects predictions for the mean extent of Arctic sea ice in September. These predictions come mainly from scientists but also some other people, drawing on a variety of modeling, statistical or subjective methods that each contributo...
4.1 M km^2
Three years in a row going down, so it's time for a little rebound. My intuition.
Commented May 13, 2013 on Crowd-Source Prediction of Minimum Arctic Sea Ice at Arctic Sea Ice
Crowd-Source Prediction of Minimum Arctic Sea Ice
How does the collective wisdom of Arctic Sea Ice blog participants compare with expert scientific analysis in forecasting the September sea ice extent? This question seems worth exploring with a crowd-source experiment. You are all invited to submit, as comments to this post, your best guess for...
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