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Susan Anderson
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Chris Reynolds, Jim Hunt et al., great to see this activity here. I've been keeping up as best I can with ice information, have looked at some of your links, and plan to visit the rest. Thanks! I can't help connecting the excessive flooding in our midwest (from Texas to Canada, which will affect crops and prices when the reckoning comes in) with all this melting, as well as GW/CC. Bad stuff!
Toggle Commented Jun 26, 2019 on PIOMAS June 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Keep an eye on Leslie and Walaka, let alone Kong Rey and all the big 'uns going past Japan. I don't think this story is over. The interlocking cogs of the hemispheric (or global, if you prefer) circulatory system are crazy and getting crazier. https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane I'm not a close enough observer to say if temps are warmer than usual around the Arctic, but it seems to me they are. Lotta push going on there.
Toggle Commented Oct 3, 2018 on 2018 Arctic sea ice minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks sakelwe, good point. Further to my own comment, I see it's not as pushy as I thought it might be, but here's a way to track that push: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=176.95,58.52,442/loc=-152.155,3.612
Thanks for a great article and fascinating discussion/argument, that's very informative and useful. Thanks also for the links. Neven, your overview is solid gold. One thing to add. Right now, there's a tropical storm in the Pacific (just formed) that is heading straight north past Japan. Oops - just double-checked and it looks like more trouble for Tokyo, but still the energy is pushing north, and there's a lot of it.
Currently large amounts of the surface at the North Pole are above freezing https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=200.94,92.16,1416/loc=96.248,89.958 Also, significant warmth @ western Greenland and northeastern Canada, fwiw.
Toggle Commented Jun 13, 2018 on PIOMAS June 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Nice (April 29) visual comparison of Bering Sea this year and 2013 on EarthObservatory "Historic Low Sea Ice in the Bering Sea" May 3, 2018 https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=92084&eocn=home&eoci=iotd_grid (Yes, I know, it's only part of the picture, and a couple of weeks old.)
Toggle Commented May 11, 2018 on PIOMAS May 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
For anyone making predictions based on current events, I'd recommend waiting a couple more weeks for all traces of the recent SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event to be assimilated into the global system. It has, in my amateur opinion (based on an inadequate sample, which is why scientists are not committing), caused a lot of cold weather in Europe and the US (and possibly elsewhere, I wouldn't have any direct knowledge about that) when it's occured in the past few years. While I know we all know that weather is local and climate about global weather trends over time, it's impossible not to view climate through the lens of local weather. I'm not suggesting we are incapable of objectivity, only that we are human!
Toggle Commented Mar 23, 2018 on PIOMAS March 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Robert S, I think I first heard that idea some years ago, and it certainly seems to be evident in reality.
Toggle Commented Feb 19, 2018 on PIOMAS February 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Yes, as we await another blob of cold in North America, we know it will come at the cost of more warmth to our north.
Toggle Commented Jan 30, 2018 on PIOMAS January 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
@Twemoran, Oh, sorry, on the Forum it remembers me. I think I had to log in once in the past year.
Toggle Commented Jan 14, 2018 on PIOMAS January 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
@Jim Hunt, I can't help but think that's not entirely unrelated to our upsy-downsy craziness in US northeast ("bomb cyclone") which brought floods to the sidewalk outside our front door 10 years earlier than I thought possible. @Twemoran, I'm in via Google on a Mac with browser Firefox. No problems here.
Toggle Commented Jan 14, 2018 on PIOMAS January 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Still OT, but since this comment section is pretty thin and I'm always interested in what Aaron Lewis has to say, and John C's heat dome comment also resonates, I clunk in to say I think trying to identify a single cause is a mistake. A lot of warmth has been shoved north by an exceptionally warm and busy tropical season (still not over). Then there's Dark Snow (soot/particulates) and biological input (algae etc.): "Sea level fears as Greenland darkens" (Shukman) http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-40686984 A five-year UK research project known as Black and Bloom is under way to investigate the different species of algae and how they might spread, and then to use this knowledge to improve computer projections of future sea level rise. The possibility of biologically inspired melting was not included in the estimates for sea level rise published by the UN's climate panel, the IPCC, in its latest report in 2013.
Toggle Commented Nov 1, 2017 on PIOMAS October 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
AnotherJbT, why not give us the link? [I clicked on "re:IJIS" at the top.] Here: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,230.msg129601.html#msg129601 It would make more sense to ask your question there, instead of this relatively inactive blog post.
Toggle Commented Sep 22, 2017 on PIOMAS September 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
This time of year this spot used to buzz with information about the minimum; perhaps that has migrated to the forum? Anyways, I was looking at my usual: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=315.74,94.92,474 And saw warm air pouring past Svalbard in quantity, and some other incursions. Meanwhile we're having the worst Atlantic hurricane season and Japan is being hammered, with much churning in the Bering/Chukchi area. I'm not holding my breath, as it looks like the minimum could be just now, but these incursions ... Anyone care to point me and any passers-by at a link for wherever people are discussing the minimum on the forum? Ah, that was just lazy of me, would this be it? I found 3 related posts with recent entries. http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2126.msg129096.html#new
Toggle Commented Sep 18, 2017 on PIOMAS September 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Had no trouble going straight into the forum (2009 Macbook, Firefox); I have my password somewhere but it let me straight in like usual. OT here: new pic of Larsen C A68 now it's in daylight: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1175.msg129074.html#msg129074
Toggle Commented Sep 16, 2017 on PIOMAS September 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
@Sam, thank you very much for your interesting excursion into the bigger picture. I don't think the Arctic's tale this year is quite told. Being an amateur ("jack of all trades, master of none") with broad interests in the earth's circulatory system I see similar human tendencies in the Arctic and hurricane communities, where we are eager to identify specifics and trends although reality is more complex. In this case, my broader interests overlap. European winter storm Aileen, the first of the season, included an unusual stream from the Arctic (Svalbard region) almost straight south to Europe and a similar stream running north from the Atlantic pushing up past Greenland (roughly). We don't often see these forces going straight north/south; they are more often spirals. It is the nature of cyclones to vent excess energy northward, and given this rather spectacular season (we USians are disgustingly prone to narrow focus on ourselves, but the Pacific is also active) I think there will be a further contribution with warmer waters being pushed north. I know the complexity of land narrows the space for this transfer, but it's there if you look; this updates but currently it shows what I'm talking about: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=316.32,88.39,269
Toggle Commented Sep 15, 2017 on PIOMAS September 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
In the process of trying to avoid saying what I think about that wholly gratuitous attack on Neven, I've opted out on commenting here several times. But it is deeply unfair to this fascinating article and amazing work, so here I am in my typical "fools rush in where angels fear to tread" clumping boots. I had a little time to read through, look at the photographs, visit the map site, and in general reflect on this valuable work. There is something about the permafrost erosion that troubles us all, but that's no excuse for evading the issues. Thank you again, Sam Hayes, with your mudwork and endurance and fascinating work!
This is wonderful. I hope there will be time to add to it, but I believe we will happily wait for updates. Nothing like real reports from the ground. I only recently appreciated that when the sun doesn't go down it gets pretty hot in summer! Thank you. I've been over to the forum and will try to keep up with that as well.
Toggle Commented Aug 20, 2017 on Guest blog: Tuk toy what? at Arctic Sea Ice
Glenn Doty, that insight responds to a puzzle I've had since last year. It completely makes sense that as the ice recedes the shorter days do just that. Thank you. Jim Hunt, thanks for the Wipneus animation. -- I would add my plea (and as an offender myself take note) for cutting back on excessive (and off topic, particularly on politics and human failings) commentary, particularly with regard to politics. The forum is the place for that.
Toggle Commented Aug 18, 2017 on PIOMAS August 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
I occasionally view a rather long youtube on extreme weather that comes out every few days, and at the end it had a zoom from Greenland to the fire. I thought it useful to know that the fire is very small. Not insignificant, but it has currently burned 5000 acres. It is, as noted, also off topic for this article. There are, once again off topic for Neven's Sea Ice blog, an unusual number of out of control fires globally. Siberia is a mess, for example: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=90748&eocn=home&eoci=nh Some of the same people who are eager to find clathrates everywhere (true or not, to be honest I don't know how valid the claims are, just tend to trust the best scientists) are also eager to claim "Greenland is burning" rather than a rather small section of Greenland (southwest) is having an unusual fire event, but Greenland is *not* burning.
Thanks Neven. Maybe I can draw your fire (I can take it, don't worry) by pointing out that it looks to me like y'all would rather shoot at each other than respond to me. Sometimes we have to swallow our righteousness and move on. There was much that was interesting and useful in this exchange, until the anger turned it into a circular firing squad. I know it's easier to attack people who actually listen, but believe me, as someone living in the land of Trump, blaming each other may be easy but it is wrong.
As the original provocation, I am appalled that you guys are duking it out, and beg you to read what I wrote. It seems the word clathrates brings out the worst in people on all "sides". It's like the Berniebusters. It's more important to be angry than to get along, to be right than to consider the other person might be doing their best. I like both Bill Fothergill and Daniel Bailey, but I have to admit that the use they made of my post makes me not want to come back. Please reconsider.
FWIW, Those fires are on the far southwest of Greenland, and Petermann is on the far northwest. Almost as far as one bit of Greenland can get from another. I'm curious how that Petermann crack has fared. And thanks to Daniel Bailey for all the hard work. I will copy the whole conversation for myself in case this conversation, which I agree is far from the subject, is removed.
Oh dear, I didn't mean to open up the Pandora's box of "clathrates". I don't mean to belittle the problem of methane and permafrost, but I'm not expert enough to do anything but realize that it's a red flag to a group of people with whom I largely agree and of whom I am fond. imvho some people go off the reservation about these problems given half a chance, though Bill F explains his position quite rationally. From what I've been able to absorb, I think other problems are bad enough and more reliable as to evidence and sense of proportion, than the "bomb" stuff.* I also don't mean to suggest that there isn't a bit of truth amongst all the hot air on the subject. I was simply thinking others might be interested about those fires, and came back because EarthObservatory has an item today. (I know that's what the forum is for, but it's time consuming to get involved so I chose this for a relative driveby post about what was happening (I was actually looking at fires in Zambia and Namibia which are not being covered at all, and that is even more off topic.)) Here's the link: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=90709&src=nha In an unusual event, satellites have detected a sizable wildfire burning in Greenland. The fire is in western Greenland, about 150 kilometers (90 miles) northeast of Sisimiut. Most of Greenland is covered by ice, but dwarf willows, shrubs, grasses, mosses, and other vegetation do live in some coastal areas. .... While it is not unprecedented for satellites to observe fire activity in Greenland, a preliminary analysis ... suggests that MODIS has detected far more fire activity in Greenland in 2017 than it did during any other year since the sensor began collecting data in 2000. The fire appears to be burning through peat ... It is not clear what triggered the fire. Sisimiut, the second largest town in Greenland, has a population of 5,500 people. *There are times when I think we desire something with the glitter of catastrophe to dress up the all too grim reality of mounting disaster. Just sayin'
Slightly OT, but perhaps better than putting it with the PIOMAS posts. Startling: "There’s a Wildfire Burning in West Greenland Right Now" (vicinity of Kangerlussuaq) http://www.climatecentral.org/news/wildfire-burning-greenland-21686