Neven Thank you for all the hard work, and yeah, the emotional burden is something we all carry. Just a thought to consider, something that might allow the blog to continue without the toll it takes on you. Open it up to a larger author community. A number of members of the Forum certainly have the chops to produce good quality posts. This is the approach John Cook took with Skepticalscience many years ago, created an author community that generated most of the content. You are a member of that authors community so you know how it works. Might the same thing work here, so that the blog can continue and you can get the rest and re-centering you need and richly deserve.

"The Greeks did fine without any fossil fuels, but they had slaves. " Fossil Fuels are our slaves. For those of us in the developed world fossil fuels are the equivalent of having 100 slaves. Average energy output from the human body is around 100 watts. Average energy consumption in the developed west is around 10 kWatts

So, given what has happened this season, the suggestion from HYCOM of what is happening in the Eastern Arctic, is it going to happen? will we see a virtually Ice Free Eastern Arctic this year? An Ice Free North Pole. Or is this some sort of coitus interruptus in potentio. Aaargghh.....

Wow. You even rated a drive by from Steve Goddard. Anthony Watts will be here next. Maybe ClimateAudit will audit you. Or Chris Monckton will teach you some Latin. You and John Cook might want to compare notes on how much fun it is watching all the Wicked Witches trying to launch their Flying Monkeys against you. Welcome to the Big Time Neven. Best buy some popcorn. Sometimes the circus is really fun to watch.

"except for the most rabid disinformers." Oh stop being so nice to Steve Goddard. Nevertheless, well done Neven. The Arctic Sea Ice is just one narrow vein in the gold field of Climate Science. But you and a small cohort of diligent compatriots are sure mining that vein deeply! When someone in the distant future writes the history of the Climate Wars, with the wonderful wisdom of hindsight, many unexpected names will stand out. Take a bow!

So if the developments HYCOM are suggesting, certainly supported by concentration changes in the arc towards the Laptev, continue, what are the odds for a REALLY bizarre minimum? PIOMAS not lower than 2012 AND the Eastern Hemisphere and perhaps the Pole virtually ice free. What a hair-raising 6 months it has been. Also the fact that PIOMAS has pretty much paralled 2012 after the delayed melting in May says that even with the colder season with more clouds, ice dynamics, storms and maybe warmer water were still able to carry the load. Imagine what we would have had if it had been more like 2007.

OT but ... Take a look at this 'kick' in the DMI Extent graph http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current_new.png This is one 'weird' melt season!

Regarding the rate of CO2 emissions today compared to the PETM, Lee Kump and his colleagues published a study last year based on a core from a shallow seabed from around the time of the PETM. This gave a far more accurate estimate of the rate of CO2 concentration rise during the PETM than anything previously. Take home message. CO2 levels today are rising 10 times faster than during the PETM. Wrt Methane Time Bombs, nothing in the record from the HCO or the Eemian suggests methane emissions at catastrophic rates. However, if warming proceeds as is likely in coming decades we will move into uncharted territory wrt temperatures and rates of change.

Looking at both the extent and area graphs from various sources, if this year were to continue on its current trajectory it is likely to meet the 2012 curve at around day 220. 2 things suggest to me that this is possible. The thinning reported by Hycom in the CAB seems to be allowing the pack to compact towards the pole, allowing scope for extent/area reduction just due to compaction. And if the high pressure system over the Chukchi/Beaufort persists, it can reduce that area significantly. The significant difference in 2012 was that around mid August, when the curves in other years had started to shallow out, 2012 kept on going down. If 2013 can catch 2012 by then and then the same phenomenon occurs again after that, this year could easily reach similar values to last year.

3.25 which is higher than my previous estimate. Reasons: Beaufort/Chukchi lagging so much although the high over there now may reverse that rapidly in which case we can catch up to 2012 within a few weeks. CAB thinning has to have an impact that we will see later The FRAM Express has been derailed lately. If that restarts, with the East Greenland Sea/Fram so empty right now, transport out that way becomes easier when the wind patterns are conducive. Around mid August the previous years had started to shallow out but 2012 just kept dropping. If we see the same process this year then we could still see a small number. CAB thinning is the thing most likely to cause this.

Does PIOMAS produce basin level results? What would be interesting is seeing which basins have done what. Also, just eyeballing the main graph, it looks like most of the difference occurred in May. June has paralleled to 2012 line fairly well.

Neven Totally OT. The Webcams page is linking to the aloftcon archive for the USCGC Healy for 2012, not 2013. The Healy doesn't seem to have done much interesting recently but she might. [There was a reason I didn't link properly, but can't remember what it was. Fixed now, thanks; N.]

I'm going for 2.75 Reasons. Even with any question marks over HYCOM, any errors they have must at least be reasonably consistent. And they have shown a massive rate of change in the CAB. This at a time when there was lots of cloud and cold weather. Ergo, most of the melt has been from the bottom and fragmentation of the ice, degrading of the fresh water lens etc. Most of the peripheral basins will go, even if they have started slowly. Now basic thermodynamics says that whole eastern hemisphere region will melt out earlier than last year. And not all of that is extremely high latitudes so still getting sunlight and exposure to air masses from Siberia/Canada/Alaska. So warmer water to generate weather systems. Complete melt of the Eastern hemisphere right to the pole is plausible and perhaps earlier than we might think. Or that there are large swathes of open water within the eastern hemisphere. All this allows weather/winds/waves to build up a head of steam before slamming into the bastion above Greenland/Ellesmere which must still be weakened due to the earlier cracking events. So larger transits out through the Fram/Nares, into the Beaufort, or even simply breaking the bastion up into separated chunks. All because the ice is more easily mobile. Imagine a storm like last year by but this year it doesn't hit ice till the other side of the pole.

By 'the ship' I was referring to the Yamal.

Wikipedia has the ship that made the 1977 passage to the Pole as the Arktika http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arktika_%28icebreaker%29

The latest thickness animation from HYCOM is showing patches of less than 0.5 metres, essentially at the Pole. http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif The odds for a polynya at the North Pole are definitely shortening. Talk about 'watch this space'!

2013 vs 2012 The outer basins in the Arctic may take longer to go than last year but go they will. And the CAB loos like it is getting turned to mush.

I know there are various opinions about how good the Navy's thickness projections are but look at the latest animation. Look at the big sheering event they are predicting above the Lincoln in a few days. http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

Whether the CAB is seeing open water, lots of slushies or masses of melt pools, it sure is unusual. And the SW Kara is still fast asleep. This is going to be one weird melt season.

PIOMAS has been climbing relative to 2012 for some months now. With all the cracking we have seen in that time, how much might that have impacted on this - lead opens up then freezes over, more ice?

ulisescervantes I wasn't trying to diss' anyone's religious beliefs or anything similar. Rather I was trying to highlight how people with particular types of psychological makeup and value system can be deeply uncomfortable and resistant to ideas that challenge their core value system. 2 people may share the same religious beliefs for example yet bring very different psychologies to how they 'process' their beliefs. It is the underlying psychology that is the focus, not the beliefs. And it is the impact of different peoples psychological makeup on how they 'process' ideas such notions as 'our way of life is leading to a dangerous change in the climate'. 2 people may both have a deep support for the capitalist/free enterprise system and defend it strongly. However, when presented with evidence that it is causing harm, one person may come to accept that fact. It is distressing for them, disturbing, that something they cherish could cause harm. But they are able to travel the painful road to accepting that fact. The other person is literally unable to accept it. Mere facts aren't strong enough to overturn inner certainties because they have a personality that is built very strongly on inner, perhaps subconscious beliefs. For them their economic conservatism for example isn't an opinion they hold; it is their identity. And when confronted with ideas that are a challenge to their identity, rejecting minor things like evidence is easy in comparison. This difference is an issue of personality type, not political views.

Josh "Texans are different, or so I've recently learned - apparently if you say anything that suggests Texas could experience negative consequences from climate change, they take it as a personal insult - actually as an insult against the state of Texas, which is much worse than a personal insult for them. " It isn't a Texan thing. It is a thing associated with certain kinds of conservative personality types. Capitalism, Free-Enterprise, The Consumer Society etc. To some people the deep and visceral 'goodness' of these things is so profound, so deeply unconsciously real that any notion that calls them into question or suggests they may have any sort of negative consequences, or might need to be curtailed is anathema. Emotionally anathema. Probably the best analogy is to consider deeply conservative Christians. Evolution is anathema. Almost literally Blasphemy. To the economically conservative that Capitalism/Free Enterprise might have negative aspects or consequences is also Blasphemy. And ideas of blasphemy are never ever rational. But very visceral.

nightvid cole So the BG spins hard clockwise a week or so ago, breaking things up. Then across Ellesmere / Greenland it reverses, pushing towards the Fram. Is Mother Nature trying to tell us something?

I have just put some of these images up in comments on a post about Andy Lee Robinson's PIOMAS graphics at SkS - http://www.skepticalscience.com/feb-2013-sea-ice-spiral.html Neven, you might want to consider a cross-post on this at SkS, it might be a big story - drop Dana a note

Comparing the animation Neven has shown with the latest CICE animation here http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif There is an interesting possibility. CICE is showing a large mass of the remnant 4.5-5M ice having moved SW, left Ellesmere and continued on. With weak ice in the Beaufort not resisting the BG very well what are the odds that the mass ends up sitting in the middle of the Beaufort at the start of the melt season, waiting to melt.