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Ted Kaminski
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So many words and so little time to make them comprehensible.
Weekend Reading: Peak Moustache of Understanding
John Harwood's claim that Dean Baquet's first priority is turning the *New York Times* into a trusted information intermediary runs on to and then sinks offshore of the reef that is Thomas Friedman: Tom Friedman, in #Davos, proves once again he is the emperor of the idiots. This got spontaneous ...
As "Modest Proposals" go this is moderate compared to Swift's.
Orson Scott Card's Game...
Noted without comment: >Orson Scott Card: Historical lies have great persistence. There are still people who think that Winston Churchill "failed" at Gallipoli; who believe that Richard III murdered his nephews, though the only person with a motive to kill them was Henry Tudor; who believe that G...
So public (debt) investment at extremely low interest rates that replaces the lack of private investment will expanding the capital stock at a rate greater than the cost of interest is good for future generations. Austerity causing higher public debt with no increase in the capital stock is not a gift for future generations. Public debt, for example, caused by pernicious tax cuts that add nothing to the capital stock also is not a gift to future generations. Conversely, running a public surplus during good economic times, like the 1990s, in order to not crowd out private investment is a gift to future generations.
Very Deuteronomy. "A time to plant, a time to reap...". Neither government fiscal austerity or fiscal stimulus is always good or bad.
The Intergenerational Burden of the Debt: Nick Rowe Tempts Fate Weblogging...
Nick Rowe: >Worthwhile Canadian Initiative: The burden of the (bad monetary policy) on future generations: You can try to kill zombie ideas. Or you can try to reframe them. I'm fed up with killing the "The national debt is not a burden on future generations because they will inherit (sic) the bon...
Zimbabwe would rather be paid in its currency than dollars?
Credible Promises about 'Irresponsible' Policy
Paul Krugman discusses Michael Woodford's important paper: Woodford on Monetary Policy (Sort of Wonkish), by Paul Krugman: I’m not in Jackson Hole... No matter. I can still read the papers — and the most important one was by Mike Woodford (pdf). Woodford’s paper is long and really dense... Bu...
The Federal Lines of Credit proposal is interesting because it need not increase the long term debt of the country. If it is a fixed amount it would be progressive and could include all citizens. The trouble with some ideas with mortgage write downs is it becomes a political debate and not all citizens have the choice of whether or not to participate. Perhaps for those not taking out a loan, or only a portion of the credit line, their SS retirements would be increased till the "interest" is paid off to them.
Now does this solve the underlying causes of Great Depression II? No. It may help us to close the output gap and the un and underemployed would be more than happy with that. The question is how big to make the lines of credit and at what terms would they be used? What would be the economic impact of a credit line of 25% of present per capita income multiplied by the number of citizens? Using the rates of use in the Hausmann paper what would be the impact to GDP?
Preview of Joshua Hausman's Economics Job Market Paper, Courtesy of Miles Kimball: Effective Expansionary Fiscal Policy in the Great Depression
Joshua Hausman on Historical Evidence for What Federal Lines of Credit Would Do: >Perhaps the best historical analogies to Miles’s Federal Lines of Credit Proposal are 1931 and 1936 policy changes that gave World War I veterans early access to a promised 1945 bonus payment. In 1924, Congress pa...
Prepare for the "I told you so" comments when food prices (headline) rise. How the drought affects core inflation will be interesting to see and is JC talking headline or core and how persistent the inflation will be. Perhaps its whichever suits him at the time.
Department of "Huh!?": Yet Another John Cochrane Edition
John Cochrane writes: >Inflation Should Be Feared: We are not having inflation because foreigners are still buying prodigious amounts of our unbacked government debts, out of fear that their governments are worse. If that stops, watch out. The inflation some are hoping for will then come with a v...
Southern Wisconsin is much the same as Iowa. It is interesting on how little things like being downslope makes for a taller and greener field versus others just yards away. Be prepared for the runaway inflation talk by next spring when food prices rise because of the drought.
Southwest corner of Iowa blogging
Isn't the corn supposed to be taller than this? Isn't the corn supposed to be green and not brown?
Arthur should keep his economic musings to the back of cocktail napkins instead of in full public view.
Why History of Economic Thought Is Important: Whack-a-Mole Wall Street Journal/Arthur Laffer Edition
Why oh why can't we have a better press corps? Why oh why can't we have better right-wing economists? As every even casual student of the history of economic thought knows, back before 1829 whether it was sensible to talk about increases in economic agents' planned spending raising and decreases...
I don't see where the FLOC needs to be tied to any future benefit program like SS. Delinquent "loans" could be recouped by the IRS through attaching the culprits refunds if necessary. As long as the interest is lower than the ones charged by the private sector this can aid in deleveraging by overstretched citizens. With Treasuries hovering in the 1.5-2% region this should be able to be revenue neutral to the Federal Government while being an aid to those who need it the most. The later post about the natural experiment that showed a boost to the economy is very encouraging.
Getting the Biggest Bang for the Buck from Fiscal Policy: Federal Lines of Credit: Miles Kimball Should Talk to Josh Hausman Department
Miles Kimball writes: >Getting the Biggest Bang for the Buck in Fiscal Policy: Last week, on Monday, May 14, I was one of ten outside academics invited to present a briefing to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve on the topic of consumption…. I proposed an addition to the toolkit of fis...
My vote goes for Brad's version of reality. The other reality is just to filled with on the Road to Damascus moments.
Ezra Klein: DeLong Smackdown Watch: Romney Now Sincerely Believes the Individual Health Insurance Mandate Steals Our Liberty Department
Mitt Romney, July 2009, on how great the individual mandate is: >Mr. President, What's the Rush?: No other state has made as much progress in covering their uninsured as Massachusetts.... I worked in a bipartisan fashion with Democrats to insure all our citizens... it passed the 200-member legisl...
The most interesting point made is that the billions in spending from 2004-2008 would have a greater effect if they were spent now. Pretty much is in line with Keynes and his counter cyclical budgeting. Who knew!!
Menzie Chinn Reads the IMF on How the Multiplier Is Bigger in a Depressed Economy
Menzie Chinn: >Econbrowser: State Dependence and Fiscal Multipliers: I found this graph from the April IMF Fiscal Monitor of interest…. The authors describe the results underpinning this graph thus: >>The model finds significant evidence that the impact of fiscal policy on economic activity var...
Drawing a straight line that Germany would automatically win if their is no decaration by either side in early Decemberr 1941 is quite suspect. The US Navy was already at war with Germany in the Atlantic. Would the Germans have stepped up the tempo of attacks in US waters, as they did, without a declaration? Not all the issues concern only what the US did historically versus what "neutrality" would mean. Germany also was would have choices to make.
Liveblogging World War II: December 8, 1941
President Franklin Roosevelt: >Mr. Vice President, Mr. Speaker, members of the Senate and the House of Representatives: >Yesterday, December 7th, 1941 - a date which will live in infamy - the United States of America was suddenly and deliberately attacked by naval and air forces of the Empire of ...
Hear the Word of the LORD!
David Weigel tells us about Ron Paul: >More Notes from Ralph Reed's Jamboree: Ron Paul started with the story of Isaiah, reminding the crowd of what God told the prophet about the "remnant" that can be activated by faith. "The greatest example of this 'remnant' idea was what happened with... Continue reading
Reblogged Sep 23, 2011 at Ted Kaminski's blog
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Perhaps those candidates have not read the writing on the wall "mene mene tekel upharzin......thou art weighed in the balance and found wonting"
Hear the Word of the LORD!
David Weigel tells us about Ron Paul: >More Notes from Ralph Reed's Jamboree: Ron Paul started with the story of Isaiah, reminding the crowd of what God told the prophet about the "remnant" that can be activated by faith. "The greatest example of this 'remnant' idea was what happened with the Sov...
Interesting that the two greatest Presidents of the last century were cousins. Unfortunately for the nation the other pair of paterfamilias Presidents were not even a pale shadow of the Roosevelt's.
Franklin D. Roosevelt Liveblogs World War II: January 6, 1941
Franklin Delano Roosevelt: >Franklin D. Roosevelt, The "Four Freedoms" Address to Congress: In the future days, which we seek to make secure, we look forward to a world founded upon four essential human freedoms. >The first is freedom of speech and expression -- everywhere in the world. >The seco...
Ted Kaminski is now following J. Bradford DeLong
Jul 25, 2010
Department of Complete 180 Degree Intellectual Reversals...
I haven't seen anything this big since John Yoo's pivot to his current position from his 2000 claim that Bill Clinton had exceeded his powers as commander-in-chief by placing U.S. forces under a British NATO general... Niall Ferguson, *New York Times* December 12, 2003: >**President Both: Bush Can Have Both... Continue reading
Reblogged Jul 25, 2010 at Ted Kaminski's blog
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Ted Kaminski is now following Mark Thoma
Jun 9, 2010
Ted Kaminski is now following Jo
Jun 9, 2010
Paul Krugman is reduced to psychology, and writes:...
Paul Krugman is reduced to psychology, and writes: >The Seductiveness Of Demands For Pain: Mark Thoma is astonished at Raghuram Rajan’s... desire to find some argument... for raising interest rates even though unemployment is near 10 percent.... I realized... I’d seen something like this before. Back in the summer of... Continue reading
Posted Jun 9, 2010 at Ted Kaminski's blog
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Ted Kaminski is now following The Typepad Team
Jun 9, 2010
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