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Ted Kaminski
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So many words and so little time to make them comprehensible.
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As "Modest Proposals" go this is moderate compared to Swift's.
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So public (debt) investment at extremely low interest rates that replaces the lack of private investment will expanding the capital stock at a rate greater than the cost of interest is good for future generations. Austerity causing higher public debt with no increase in the capital stock is not a gift for future generations. Public debt, for example, caused by pernicious tax cuts that add nothing to the capital stock also is not a gift to future generations. Conversely, running a public surplus during good economic times, like the 1990s, in order to not crowd out private investment is a gift to future generations. Very Deuteronomy. "A time to plant, a time to reap...". Neither government fiscal austerity or fiscal stimulus is always good or bad.
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Zimbabwe would rather be paid in its currency than dollars?
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The Federal Lines of Credit proposal is interesting because it need not increase the long term debt of the country. If it is a fixed amount it would be progressive and could include all citizens. The trouble with some ideas with mortgage write downs is it becomes a political debate and not all citizens have the choice of whether or not to participate. Perhaps for those not taking out a loan, or only a portion of the credit line, their SS retirements would be increased till the "interest" is paid off to them. Now does this solve the underlying causes of Great Depression II? No. It may help us to close the output gap and the un and underemployed would be more than happy with that. The question is how big to make the lines of credit and at what terms would they be used? What would be the economic impact of a credit line of 25% of present per capita income multiplied by the number of citizens? Using the rates of use in the Hausmann paper what would be the impact to GDP?
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Prepare for the "I told you so" comments when food prices (headline) rise. How the drought affects core inflation will be interesting to see and is JC talking headline or core and how persistent the inflation will be. Perhaps its whichever suits him at the time.
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Southern Wisconsin is much the same as Iowa. It is interesting on how little things like being downslope makes for a taller and greener field versus others just yards away. Be prepared for the runaway inflation talk by next spring when food prices rise because of the drought.
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Arthur should keep his economic musings to the back of cocktail napkins instead of in full public view.
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I don't see where the FLOC needs to be tied to any future benefit program like SS. Delinquent "loans" could be recouped by the IRS through attaching the culprits refunds if necessary. As long as the interest is lower than the ones charged by the private sector this can aid in deleveraging by overstretched citizens. With Treasuries hovering in the 1.5-2% region this should be able to be revenue neutral to the Federal Government while being an aid to those who need it the most. The later post about the natural experiment that showed a boost to the economy is very encouraging.
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My vote goes for Brad's version of reality. The other reality is just to filled with on the Road to Damascus moments.
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The most interesting point made is that the billions in spending from 2004-2008 would have a greater effect if they were spent now. Pretty much is in line with Keynes and his counter cyclical budgeting. Who knew!!
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Drawing a straight line that Germany would automatically win if their is no decaration by either side in early Decemberr 1941 is quite suspect. The US Navy was already at war with Germany in the Atlantic. Would the Germans have stepped up the tempo of attacks in US waters, as they did, without a declaration? Not all the issues concern only what the US did historically versus what "neutrality" would mean. Germany also was would have choices to make.
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David Weigel tells us about Ron Paul: >More Notes from Ralph Reed's Jamboree: Ron Paul started with the story of Isaiah, reminding the crowd of what God told the prophet about the "remnant" that can be activated by faith. "The greatest example of this 'remnant' idea was what happened with... Continue reading
Reblogged Sep 23, 2011 at Ted Kaminski's blog
Perhaps those candidates have not read the writing on the wall "mene mene tekel upharzin......thou art weighed in the balance and found wonting"
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Interesting that the two greatest Presidents of the last century were cousins. Unfortunately for the nation the other pair of paterfamilias Presidents were not even a pale shadow of the Roosevelt's.
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Ted Kaminski is now following J. Bradford DeLong
Jul 25, 2010
I haven't seen anything this big since John Yoo's pivot to his current position from his 2000 claim that Bill Clinton had exceeded his powers as commander-in-chief by placing U.S. forces under a British NATO general... Niall Ferguson, *New York Times* December 12, 2003: >**President Both: Bush Can Have Both... Continue reading
Reblogged Jul 25, 2010 at Ted Kaminski's blog
Ted Kaminski is now following Mark Thoma
Jun 9, 2010
Ted Kaminski is now following Jo
Jun 9, 2010
Paul Krugman is reduced to psychology, and writes: >The Seductiveness Of Demands For Pain: Mark Thoma is astonished at Raghuram Rajan’s... desire to find some argument... for raising interest rates even though unemployment is near 10 percent.... I realized... I’d seen something like this before. Back in the summer of... Continue reading
Posted Jun 9, 2010 at Ted Kaminski's blog
Ted Kaminski is now following The Typepad Team
Jun 9, 2010