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The Arctic Oscillation Index is currently very positive, meaning warm air is being sucked in via the north Atlantic; however, models say this index will reverse soon. A positive AOI in the months of March through May means strong melting - the effect lessens in June. The Navy's model shows we started out with almost no thick multi-year ice:
Toggle Commented Mar 31, 2019 on PIOMAS February 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
March 31: Climate Reanalyzer showing temp anomaly of +7.5C. The ice arches will be no more, soon, and the strait is open. The SE Beaufort is pretty smashed up.
Toggle Commented Mar 31, 2019 on PIOMAS February 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
I am not a statistician, but shouldn't the numbers at the poles be viewed separately, then viewed in comparison and how likely the two graphs are to both have such negative sigmas? I don't think it is correct, exactly, to lump the numbers together. Of course, it's probably not the right test, but the Tukey test or something similar should be used, shouldn't it?
Another graph animated JAXA SIE from Zack (ok, I'm done for the night):
Sorry, Zack is studying atmospheric science:
Anomalous heat projected to be 6C in the Arctic this next week, posted on twitter by meteorologist Zack Labe:
I don't know how accurate Climate Reanalyzer is, but it has been showing rain somewhere in the Arctic, every day for the past three weeks. Two days ago, it showed rain over Kara Island, the Siberian coast, western Alaska, Svalbard, Iceland and western Greenland. In late October.
Does anyone know why the US Navy's graphs seem to be offline?
Toggle Commented Aug 8, 2016 on PIOMAS August 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Chris, please have a good look at your graph of "Long term April regional average thickness," in particular at the bars for ESS and Chukchi.
Toggle Commented May 21, 2016 on PIOMAS May 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Chris, I'm working 12 hours a day right now as an internal auditor and won't have time to be more "specific." I think the issues raised are more than sufficient.
Toggle Commented May 19, 2016 on PIOMAS May 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thank you, Aaron. Yes, perhaps we should be talking about mass and density and not just volume since the character of the ice now is so completely different from what it was back in say 2006-2010. It is not dense blue multi-year ice, but rather slushy and full of holes. Its overall temperature must also be higher than it would have been in 2007. A friend who is an engineer said that once an algorithm goes wrong in a particular direction, if things continue in that direction, the error will become larger and larger. IMO this is what is occurring with the PIOMAS. In any case, the mass of m3 of ice now must be lower than it was in 2007, due to its lower density. Thus, it should also melt faster. And, I think we are seeing this.
Toggle Commented May 18, 2016 on PIOMAS May 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Chris Reynolds, I am not the only one who thinks PIOMAS is not all it's cracked up to be. The A-Team also think there may be problems with it.
Toggle Commented May 16, 2016 on PIOMAS May 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
It defies reason to believe that there was more sea ice volume in 2015 than there was in 2007. It is disheartening to see so many try to go through contortions to reconcile PIOMAS ice volumes with other measures.
Toggle Commented May 13, 2016 on PIOMAS May 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
The second storm has entered the Arctic basin. What these storms also do is beat the fragile ice to death. There is hardly any ice hugging the northern coast of Alaska, for example. You can watch these storms using the IR satellite images provided by the Canadian Met Office. The view changes every 20-45 minutes or so:
At the moment, it doesn't appear that the cold blob in the North Atlantic is keeping warmer air out.
Toggle Commented Dec 29, 2015 on Winter solstice at Arctic Sea Ice
Colorado Bob, I noticed browning near the shore along Siberia and wondered if it had to do with salt water intrusion into the thawing permafrost or if it had anything to do with excess methane being emitted from the warmer permafrost.
Toggle Commented Dec 29, 2015 on Winter solstice at Arctic Sea Ice
Just wanted to point out that the sea ice melted apace in May and early June while the Arctic Oscillation Index was positive. It turned negative for the rest of the melting season, preventing a good deal of warm air from entering the basin via the North Atlantic:
Toggle Commented Sep 28, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
I am not referring to the Nares Strait itself but north of it. The ice is just in a deplorable state. Did you notice the big melt off of such thin ice? Look today off Ellesmere -- this is by far the worst condition the sea ice has ever been in that region:,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines(hidden)&t=2015-08-20&v=-944499.7323994946,-1163313.1624603223,550540.2676005054,-348209.16246032226
Toggle Commented Aug 21, 2015 on ASI 2015 update 6: one more high at Arctic Sea Ice
Concentration at the head of Nares Strait on the 18th was pitiful. SIC shows it in its heaviest color. Check the first link I posted. You can see that we have never had so little ice there.
Toggle Commented Aug 20, 2015 on ASI 2015 update 6: one more high at Arctic Sea Ice
And, slightly off topic, check out Greenland's west coast:
Toggle Commented Aug 20, 2015 on ASI 2015 update 6: one more high at Arctic Sea Ice
The AMSR2 graphic cannot be correct in the region at the head of the Nares Strait, see here:,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721(hidden),Graticule,Coastlines&t=2015-08-17&v=-377271.916414413,-895588.6609942755,-3511.916414413048,-691812.6609942755
Toggle Commented Aug 20, 2015 on ASI 2015 update 6: one more high at Arctic Sea Ice
There are some very interesting changes taking place on the north-northeast side of the south branch -- exactly where the number 2009 in brown lettertype is printed on the image showing prior retreat lines. That region showed changes in the week or so leading up to this calving event. I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens next.
Toggle Commented Aug 17, 2015 on Jakobshavn record retreat at Arctic Sea Ice
I have to wonder what the Danish are using to come up with their volume numbers: Note that 2014's volume continued to drop well into September:
Toggle Commented Aug 13, 2015 on PIOMAS August 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
A-Team: my thanks also, although it seems my primary role is to poke certain people with sharp sticks (no one here, of course!). Jenny: those are incredibly information-rich photos of the sea ice -- if that type of ice is counted as being "solid" instead of like swiss cheese, well... Also, I admire your courage in even setting foot on that stuff -- looks very dangerous. And, last but not least, you do great work (I'm saying this as a former wannabee documentary photographer, a lifetime ago).
Toggle Commented Jul 12, 2015 on PIOMAS July 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice