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Question Bill:
boomers can't retire as soon as they'd like because of their household wealth (retirement and home values) was severely reduced. they're thrifty spenders by nature. college grads can't find work in record numbers because job growth is anemic at best. BLS U-6 is persistently high. the average consumer isn't spending nearly as much in the past and their borrowing is pared way, way back.
How does this all impact your analysis, if at all?
Commented Jan 22, 2010 on Employment and a Lost Decade? A Warning on Data Analysis at Businomics Blog
Employment and a Lost Decade? A Warning on Data Analysis
Some say that we have added no jobs in the past 10 years, and they are calling it a "lost decade." What they see is a product of bad data analysis. Here's the actual U.S. employment data, plotted in blue: Actual data in blue. The green line goes from December 1999 through December 2009, sh...
I'll take a good conspiracy theory any day ;-) BTW TIM... you gave a presentation to a group of Washington County business leaders a few weeks back. Any chance of you posting it up on the web or emailing to me: thinkoregon at gmail dot com. Cheers. TO
Commented Dec 29, 2009 on Why Christmas Eve? at Tim Duy's Fed Watch
Why Christmas Eve?
One would think that policymakers would treat the day before Christmas as sacrosanct, if not for the sake of their employees, but to avoid the endless conspiracy theories that naturally arise when you partake in activities that look like they are intended to fly under the radar. Has US Treasur...
Bill,
Great post. Appreciate the objective analysis on the historical data. I too wonder about persistent employment underutilization (BLS U-6 statistic). I wrote an article entitled "Consumer Behavior And The Paradox Of Thrift" some number of months ago... and welcome your feedback on it:
http://thinkoregon.squarespace.com/news/2009/9/11/consumer-behavior-and-the-paradox-of-thrift.html
Cheers,
Scott Quick, ThinkOregon
Commented Nov 30, 2009 on Consumer Attitudes: The Future of Saving and Spending at Businomics Blog
Consumer Attitudes: The Future of Saving and Spending
This recession has shaken people up, but what will be the lasting effects on consumer behavior? That's one of the key questions as we look forward at the nature of the recovery. I've been arguing for a "return to normalcy," in which people will abandon the exuberance of the boom, but without g...
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