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Question Bill: boomers can't retire as soon as they'd like because of their household wealth (retirement and home values) was severely reduced. they're thrifty spenders by nature. college grads can't find work in record numbers because job growth is anemic at best. BLS U-6 is persistently high. the average consumer isn't spending nearly as much in the past and their borrowing is pared way, way back. How does this all impact your analysis, if at all?
I'll take a good conspiracy theory any day ;-) BTW TIM... you gave a presentation to a group of Washington County business leaders a few weeks back. Any chance of you posting it up on the web or emailing to me: thinkoregon at gmail dot com. Cheers. TO
Toggle Commented Dec 29, 2009 on Why Christmas Eve? at Tim Duy's Fed Watch
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Bill, Great post. Appreciate the objective analysis on the historical data. I too wonder about persistent employment underutilization (BLS U-6 statistic). I wrote an article entitled "Consumer Behavior And The Paradox Of Thrift" some number of months ago... and welcome your feedback on it: http://thinkoregon.squarespace.com/news/2009/9/11/consumer-behavior-and-the-paradox-of-thrift.html Cheers, Scott Quick, ThinkOregon
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Nov 29, 2009