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Travis McArthur
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John, Please look more closely at Table 2.3 in the USITC report, particularly the increase in imports and exports given in dollar terms. A small increase from a small base can compute to a large percent increase. That's what's happening here. The baseline of exports in the USITC report is $1.2 trillion, but the baseline of imports is over twice as large at $2.2 trillion. A 0.4 percent increase over $1.2 trillion is smaller than a 0.2 percent increase from $2.2 trillion. The USITC's estimated increase in imports is still larger in absolute dollar terms - i.e. the terms that matter - than the increase in exports. Table 2.3 indicates that the goods trade deficit will increase by between $308 million and $416 million.
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Dec 16, 2009