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toby
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Ostepop:
"We have seen 18 years without a rise in global mean surface temperature."
Speak for yourself. Where did you "see" it, and in what record?
I went here and did an estimate of global temperature trend since 1996.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/trend.php
It told me that the average rate of global temperature rise was 0.106C per decade.
If you are making expansive claims, cite your source.
ASI 2014 update 5: low times
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
Interesting (looking at the IARC-JAXA figures just out), 2013 is marginally behind 2010, by about the equivalent of an average day's melt. It is ahead of 2009 by about 5 average day's melt.
In 2010, the IARC-JAXA minimum was 4.81m km^2, in 2009 it was 5.25m km^2.
Crowd-Source Prediction of September Sea Ice Extent (August report)
In mid-July through early August, participants on the Arctic Sea Ice (ASI) blog posted 66 individual predictions for the mean NSIDC September Arctic sea ice extent. The median value of these 66 predictions is 3.6 million km2, with an interquartile range (approximately the middle 50%) from 2.92 t...
I have stuck with 4.5m km^2 all summer, but that now looks unachieveable. I suppose ~5.3m km^2 is a good number, but I would still not be surprised by a dip below 5m km^2,
Crowd-Source Prediction of September Sea Ice Extent (August report)
In mid-July through early August, participants on the Arctic Sea Ice (ASI) blog posted 66 individual predictions for the mean NSIDC September Arctic sea ice extent. The median value of these 66 predictions is 3.6 million km2, with an interquartile range (approximately the middle 50%) from 2.92 t...
John_Mann,
Same story in Ireland, we had a scorcher in July, very high temp for >3 weeks (pretty long for us) but no records broken. August is pretty acceptable - overall best summer since mid-naughties.
Like yourself, I reckoned on a 4.5m m^2 this year - it may still squeak down to that, but I am reckoning on a 4th or 5th lowest ever. A pallid "recovery" like 2008 and 2009, but ultimately only a dead cat bounce.
This year has shown the Arctic has more resilience and variability that we thought, though not as much as deniers have been claiming.
ASI 2013 update 7: cold and cloudy
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...
Neven,
Kudos. A well-justified piece by John Abraham. One climate hero salutes another.
PS There would be a usual Gish Gallops no matter what the minimum is.
Arctic ice loss and armchair scientists
John Abraham, known as the dragon that slew the Viscount and an excellent climate science communicator, approached me a while ago with a couple of questions concerning the blog and Arctic sea ice in general. He turned it into this ego-inflating article on the Guardian website: Global warming, A...
Henry,
Michael Mann himself was once a huge supporter of sun/climate driver.
Michael Mann changed his mind, so how can his former opinion be evidence for your current one? If Mann is your authority, then you must be wrong.
Oh, never mind, I won't be feeding this troll either.
Third storm
Are we getting used to this? After the persistent cyclone in May and June, and the spiffy, but short-lived cyclone of two weeks ago, the Arctic is visited by yet another intense storm that goes below 980 hPa. In fact, according to Environment Canada it is currently at 976 hPa, which is lower tha...
Henry,
I'm not sure how many realize that our prediction from this site has a great chance to be a laughing stock at the end of the season while denier blogs like WUWT end up way closer on their predictions.
I also lurk here with distinction, but cannot remember any instance of laughter at inaccurate predictions. Every year has had its lemons, and I don't think anyone is worried.
What did draw snorts of derision, justifiably IMHO, were specious claims of a a full scale "Arctic Ice recovery" in 2008 and 2009.
Are scientists conservative about sea ice?
An interesting entry on the NSIDC Icelights blog (hat-top to GreenOctopus) that I also indirectly discussed a couple of months ago: Are scientists conservative about sea ice? Guest post by Walt Meier, NSIDC Scientist Arctic sea ice set a record minimum extent in September 2012, far below the...
Kevin,
What you are saying is that the increasing variance is an artefact of the data collection because it has become harder to measure the extent of daily breaks due to the altered nature of the melting pack, itself a function of global warming. It is increased variance due to increaesd observational error, and not the variance of the melt itself.
Sounds reasonable to me.
ASI 2013 update 5: cyclone time again
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...
I have been downloading the IARC-JAXA record for a few years, and this year and last year saw double century breaks (>200,000 km^2)with the larger one this year, on 3rd July (208,281 km^2).
However, it is clear that the range of breaks (max size - min size) has been increasing - the variance of daily breaks is now larger, making the daily melt more inconsistent and much less predictable. There are more large daily breaks, but possibly also more small ones (while the trend is to inceasing melt).
Would anyone with a better grasp of ice melt dynamics be able to comment on that?
ASI 2013 update 5: cyclone time again
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...
I'm sticking with a cautious 4.5 million km^2.
No reason other than my gut.
Crowd-Source Prediction of September Sea Ice Extent (July report & call for August predictions)
In mid-June through early July, participants on the Arctic Sea Ice (ASI) blog posted 82 individual predictions for the mean NSIDC September Arctic sea ice extent. The median value of these 82 predictions was 3.2 million km2, with an interquartile range (approximately the middle 50% of prediction...
4.5 million km^2
Just a generous "dead cat bounce" & a feeling that the slowness of the melt might persisy.
Crowd-Source Prediction of Mean September Sea Ice Extent (July update)
Each June, July and August, the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) collects predictions for the mean extent of Arctic sea ice in September. These predictions come mainly from scientists but also some other people, drawing on a variety of modeling, statistical or subjective methods that each contributo...
4.0
Guessing really, a "dead cat bounce" from last year, but not above the former record.
Crowd-Source Prediction of Minimum Arctic Sea Ice
How does the collective wisdom of Arctic Sea Ice blog participants compare with expert scientific analysis in forecasting the September sea ice extent? This question seems worth exploring with a crowd-source experiment. You are all invited to submit, as comments to this post, your best guess for...
Are we seeing more "century breaks (>100,000 km^2)" this year than ever before (on JAXA, at least)?
The "ups and downs" of this year look qualitively different than other years. There seem to be more large daily melts, and more smaller ones as well.
Or is that just a new satellite, or a policy shift by the scientists?
ASI 2012 update 8: it shouldn't, but it does
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) and Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2011 period (NSIDC ha...
And then there's this:
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/08/11/294403/arctic-ice-thinning-4-times-faster-than-predicted-by-models-semi-stunning-m-i-t-study-finds/
Arctic 'tipping point' may not be reached
I saw this news item in the blog news feed in the right side bar and thought it was worth a post. From the BBC website: Arctic 'tipping point' may not be reached By Matt McGrath Science reporter, BBC World Service Scientists say that current concerns over a tipping point in the disappearance o...
Greg,
Unless my old eyes are deceiving me, another lead is opening up North of Ellesmere Island. It is big enough to be visible on MODIS images, though not on Cryosphere Today. Any thoughts?
PIPS is back: more info
Just a few days ago I was crying with joy that PIPS had finally come back online again. The ice displacement maps are indispensable to my amateur analysis of what's going on in the Arctic as we speak and so it was great to see it come back on-line. But it gets even better. Peter Ellis informed...
Sorry, in my last post I said PIPS when I meant the new model pictured above.
PIPS is back: more info
Just a few days ago I was crying with joy that PIPS had finally come back online again. The ice displacement maps are indispensable to my amateur analysis of what's going on in the Arctic as we speak and so it was great to see it come back on-line. But it gets even better. Peter Ellis informed...
What I don't figure is that just north of the Canadian Archipelago, if you look at the Cryosphere maps or MODIS images, you will see melting, even open water, where the ice is at its thickest according to PIPS.
Does this mean the PIPS model is out of date? Or is something else happening?
PIPS is back: more info
Just a few days ago I was crying with joy that PIPS had finally come back online again. The ice displacement maps are indispensable to my amateur analysis of what's going on in the Arctic as we speak and so it was great to see it come back on-line. But it gets even better. Peter Ellis informed...
The map does not show the Baltic - I think that is Novaya Zemlya where the ice is at 2m thickness. You can just see the top of Scandanavia at the bottom of the map, above & to the left of the letters CPOM etc.
I think I also boobed above ... of course the ice should be thicker in March because that is the maximum.
New ice thickness map of the Arctic unveiled
From the ESA webpage: The first map of sea-ice thickness from ESA’s CryoSat mission was revealed today at the Paris Air and Space Show. This new information is set to change our understanding of the complex relationship between ice and climate. From an altitude of just over 700 km and reach...
Compared with Neven's analysis is March, this map does show thicker ice in comparable places - but this map is earlier, for Jan-Feb.
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/04/ice-thickness-models.html
However, I take Daniel's point that it is early days. Great to see this product .. I have been looking forward to this for a year. Looks like a winner!
New ice thickness map of the Arctic unveiled
From the ESA webpage: The first map of sea-ice thickness from ESA’s CryoSat mission was revealed today at the Paris Air and Space Show. This new information is set to change our understanding of the complex relationship between ice and climate. From an altitude of just over 700 km and reach...
Great blog, great times ... Thanks for making it such fun.
A Farewell to Ar... ctic Sea Ice Blog
Well, not a final farewell. There's a good chance the blog will wake from hibernation when next year's melting season starts. In the meantime there will be one or several open threads for discussing the slow winter action (yes, even slower than summer action, or is it?), perhaps an update here a...
Thanks for the Ronnie O'Sullivan video. Never saw it before. Brilliant!
Century Breaks: final score
Now that the melting season is over it is time to follow up on the Century Breaks post I did in the first few weeks of the blog. Here's an overview of the last 6 years: Total century breaks: 2005: 14 2006: 8 2007: 20 2008: 12 2009: 14 2010: 11 The score for this year was rather disappointin...
PIPS is up again with most of the arrows gone into reverse or disappeared. No exit at Fram Strait.
I guess that's bad for compactification?
Sea ice extent update 29: riding the slide
I'm regularly writing updates on the current sea ice extent (SIE) as reported by IJIS (a joint effort of the International Arctic Research Center and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and compare it to the sea ice extents in the period 2006-2009. The IJIS graph is favoured by almost everyo...
Like eveyone else, I've taken note of teh uptick.
However I notice on the University of Cologne weather chart that High Pressure seems to be on the way back into the Arctic, and the PIPS displacement arrows are increasing again.
Does this mean a few decent days of compactification coming up?
Sea ice extent update 29: riding the slide
I'm regularly writing updates on the current sea ice extent (SIE) as reported by IJIS (a joint effort of the International Arctic Research Center and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and compare it to the sea ice extents in the period 2006-2009. The IJIS graph is favoured by almost everyo...
"... clouds on the horizon". Very tantalizing, Neven, do tell.
Sea ice extent update 28: riding the seesaw
I'm regularly writing updates on the current sea ice extent (SIE) as reported by IJIS (a joint effort of the International Arctic Research Center and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and compare it to the sea ice extents in the period 2006-2009. The IJIS graph is favoured by almost everyo...
~59,000 gone last night, though there may be a correction to that! If this continues, extent will drop below the 5 million km^2 mark tonight. And it looks like it will.
UofB chart of the rate of decline shows it upping slightly. My own "personal" prediction of 5.1 is well shot :))
Sea ice extent update 28: riding the seesaw
I'm regularly writing updates on the current sea ice extent (SIE) as reported by IJIS (a joint effort of the International Arctic Research Center and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and compare it to the sea ice extents in the period 2006-2009. The IJIS graph is favoured by almost everyo...
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