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Tony Duncan
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I rescind my earlier question. I have a new prediction though. The number of hits on IJIS, NSDIC DMI and Cryosphere today websites will drop off precipitously.
Toggle Commented Sep 19, 2011 on NASA video of 2011 melting season at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven, I am rather surprised at the huge relatively large daily increases in SIE. As most people I expected the minimum to come later, and with relatively small numerical daily changes. Are the last few days unusual?
Toggle Commented Sep 17, 2011 on NASA video of 2011 melting season at Arctic Sea Ice
Are there awards for the closest prediction? Is there a category for novices with absolutely no expertise? if so i still might have a shot with my 4.6 guess in early July.
Toggle Commented Sep 9, 2011 on Final poll results at Arctic Sea Ice
just got this site from SUYTS (who has not banned me) on ship locations throughout the world. Took me a few minutes to figure out how to use it, but thought you folks would find it interesting http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shiplocations.phtml
Toggle Commented Aug 24, 2011 on How thick is your ice? at Arctic Sea Ice
Sorry folks, I did not look at the date on the linked article. It IS 2007, and I scanned the article and see no mention of anything other than potential multi meter increase due to nonlinear ice sheet disintegration. Totally consistent with his other work. Of course this is the type of thing that he would get upset at me for pointing out. I will try to be more careful in the future.
Toggle Commented Aug 23, 2011 on Flash melting at Arctic Sea Ice
Not strictly relevant, but Goddard just posted this article about Hansen predicting 20 ft sea level rise by 2100. http://www.independent.com/news/2007/jul/05/new-study-predicts-greater-sea-level-rise/. I have seen no mention of this beforehand, and it seems like an unbelievable prediction. Would that not entail large scale melting of significant percentages of Greenland and Antarctica ice? The article says it is based on paleorecords, but I can't get to the actual article. Of course whenever I look at the sources Goddard provides he usually mangles what it really says. While I realize the current situation is pretty unique are there records of "flash melts" on the order of a century in continental ice sheets?
Toggle Commented Aug 23, 2011 on Flash melting at Arctic Sea Ice
Wow, Did any of you expect 100K loss? it is great getting these different sources of info. love the ship pics. Don't understand some of the other links posted, which is fine. I am not sure why the different graphs show such different extents for this year relative to 2007. Dekker posted this one http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ice_ext_n.png which shows 2011 even with 2007. JAXA still shows 200K more ice this year, and Goddard managed to find one where 2011 is crossing 2008 as of yesterday. (though I just checked it is did make a sharp downtick today) http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi_ice_area.png I realize that different parameters are used, but relative to their own data shouldn't they be giving more similar results. Is it just margin of error, or are the differences in analysis significant enough to cause significant differences in results? If that is not clear, are systems that look at 30% ice likely to have significant differences between years as ones that use 15%. Or am I misunderstanding something about all this
Toggle Commented Aug 23, 2011 on Flash melting at Arctic Sea Ice
I read it while listening to the song. Very well done! But Goddard just posted that "It appears that there will be a large increase in the amount of MYI relative to last September, as I forecast during the spring. Is that accurate? http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/08/22/increase-in-myi-in-the-works/ He usually calls me an idiot or moron when I question his claims. Hopefully you folks will be nicer.
Toggle Commented Aug 22, 2011 on How thick is your ice? at Arctic Sea Ice
Rich, I should let someone else answer that, as I am still too close to the pain of the separation. though maybe nobody knows.
Toggle Commented Aug 22, 2011 on Poll Results 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
I was just booted off of Steve Goddards blog, and find this one to be MUCH less entertaining, but quite a bit more informative. I made a prediction there in early July of 4.6 based on a heuristic dynamic model. That seemed the most fun approach, and it seemed the most reasonable at the time, Being an entertainer, I stole the concept of course, but I feel I should still get credit if it is close. No one asked me for a sigma. I am guessing that is a fancy pants way of saying "margin of error" (wow, it is also much shorter). SO I will shamelessly postdate mine and call it 157K.
Toggle Commented Aug 22, 2011 on Poll Results 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Tony Duncan is now following Neven
Jul 14, 2011
Tony Duncan is now following The Typepad Team
Jul 14, 2011