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Tyler Newton
New York, NY
Private equity investor (at Catalyst Investors) interested in economics, policy, communications and internet.
Interests: tennis, golf, economic history & theory, squash and reading
Recent Activity
Conservative or Liberal? Those seem to be the two ideological choices that face voters in the US these days. What if I'm neither? Then you are "moderate" or "independent". If I'm an anti-union, anti-tax businessman that favors abortion rights and... Continue reading
Posted Nov 8, 2015 at the Dynamist
Over at Seeking Alpha, Eric Parnell, CFA, has written an interesting post entitled A Bear Market has Two Phases. In it he posits, based on evidence from the last two bear markets (early 2000s and 2007-2009), that there are two... Continue reading
Posted Aug 25, 2015 at the Dynamist
My core base case at this time is that we are in the midst of a regime change in the market driven by a shift in the economic cycle. The timing of economic and credit cycles both in the US... Continue reading
Posted Aug 1, 2013 at the Dynamist
First of all, apologies for not writing this column many months ago. I haven't had much time to sit down and convey my thoughts on this matter. Most of the money being short gold has probably been made, but I'd... Continue reading
Posted Jun 27, 2013 at the Dynamist
Aboer, while I gave Obama the advantage on foreign policy because of familarity, I would have expected Romney to be pretty good in the end. Given his background in business, government and at the Olympics, we know he is smart, analytical, data-driven, (like Obama), and also descisive and strong at execution (probably better than Obama), he might even have been better than Obama in a true crisis. My knock on both would be that neither have very fixed principles when it comes to foreign policy, which can lead to unpredictability in times of high stress. In terms of leadership and likeability in foreign policy, Romney is highly capable and sophisticated and would have gotten along well with foreign leaders, even though they are currently generally anti-Republican for obvious reasons. With regard to the Bush-Gore analogy, we of course have no way of knowing how history would have played out under Gore but the big questions were still there: what to do in the aftermath of the dot-com crash, the culmination of the long bull market in housing, how to respond to 9-11 specifically and how to adjust our Middle East policy in general. The American people endorsed Bush's approach to all of these things at the time: the GOP gained in Congress in both the 2002 and 2004 elections and Bush was re-elected. Gore was kind of a weird guy, and I'm not sure how he would have reacted to 9-11. I could see him going overboard in his own way, maybe not by invading Iraq, but by making some other unpopular mistake. Remember, we were all pretty amped up at the time and an amped-up Gore would have been pretty unpredictable.
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My core theory of US politics can be summed up with two, very optimistic principles. The first is that the US electorate as a whole is very wise, notwithstanding the less-than-wise nature of many individuals. The second is that the... Continue reading
Posted Nov 4, 2012 at the Dynamist
The following article originally appeared in on July 9, 1012. The original article can be found here. Many institutional investors are convinced that the days of easy money are over in private equity. Managers need to distinguish themselves through... Continue reading
Posted Aug 2, 2012 at the Dynamist
This post is an installment in a continuing series supported by The Dynamist's Market Valuation Model. Please click the link to see past installments. Interest Rates As usual, we start by examining the current state of the interest rate complex,... Continue reading
Posted Jul 1, 2012 at the Dynamist
Today's release of the May jobs report showing that the economy only created 69,000 jobs and that the unemployment rate rose to 8.2% confirms what the equity markets have been hinting at for the past month...that the world economy is... Continue reading
Posted Jun 1, 2012 at the Dynamist
I often get comments from my friends that they look to my blog to get an optomistic viewpoint on the economy given all the "doom and gloom" that pervades most economic and political discourse these days. Seeing as that I... Continue reading
Posted Dec 13, 2011 at the Dynamist
Cloud computing. Managed hosting. Managed services. Software-as-a-service. There are lots of buzzwords that are both used and misused to describe the various types of IT outsourcing and web hosting. Back at the Catalyst Investors blog, I walk through the different... Continue reading
Posted Oct 19, 2011 at the Dynamist
The Beginning of the End The world's economic and political tectonic plates are starting to shift. I believe the next 12-24 months will mark a major transition period for the markets and the economy, as we will see several long... Continue reading
Posted Oct 8, 2011 at the Dynamist
President Obama is set to give his jobs speech tonight. In it, he will outline a series of proposals to stimulate job creation. I don't know what these are yet, but if I was appointed philosopher-king, the following would be... Continue reading
Posted Sep 8, 2011 at the Dynamist
Given the recent plunge in the stock market, are stocks cheap? That is the multi-trillion dollar question. My base case is that we are part-way through a long term (or "secular") bear market that began in 2000. While inflation has... Continue reading
Posted Aug 10, 2011 at the Dynamist
If one looks at both nominal and inflation-adjusted treasury yields for the next five years, the market does not think near term austerity is necessary. In fact, it is pretty clear that the market wants more treasury issuance not less,... Continue reading
Posted Aug 9, 2011 at the Dynamist
We are flailing economically. No question about that. Sadly, no one has any good answers for what to do about it. Sometimes, there's just not that much to do. We just have to ride it out. The immediate economic problem... Continue reading
Posted Aug 5, 2011 at the Dynamist
Welcome to the "Rounded Bottom". That is how I look at the economy right now. As I outlined in my 2011 economic outlook, business investment has recovered to normalized levels. Government policies have propped up personal incomes, allowing savings to... Continue reading
Posted Jul 6, 2011 at the Dynamist
Get ready for a multi-year bull market in the U.S. dollar. Yes, you heard that right. No statement about investing right now could feel more wrong. And this is why it's probably time to start swimming against the tide. First,... Continue reading
Posted May 17, 2011 at the Dynamist
2010 was a year of recovery for the US economy. On a year-over-year basis, nominal GDP grew 4.1%. (I will mostly use nominal GDP because I like to look at relative values. Nominal GDP represent actual cash numbers, while the... Continue reading
Posted Apr 29, 2011 at the Dynamist
Since the financial panic of 2008, I have generally been an interest rate and inflation dove. In my view most of the inflation damage was done from 2001 to 2007, not in the time after the financial crisis. The combination... Continue reading
Posted Apr 10, 2011 at the Dynamist
There are ways to reform the tax code that would encourage investment in the USA without providing a windfall to corporations...
Toggle Commented Feb 28, 2011 on Corporate Tax "Reform"? at ataxingmatter
Why would the Federal Reserve Bank, who is holding interest rates at zero, be purposely trying to whittle away the purchasing power of savers in this country? Below are a few simple rules to understand how the Federal Reserve operates,... Continue reading
Posted Feb 28, 2011 at the Dynamist
The economy has gone haywire and politicians and economists are in total disagreement as to what to do about it. Regardless, the key to getting ahead is to look at the world how it is, and not how it ought... Continue reading
Posted Feb 28, 2011 at the Dynamist
For those of you interested in online advertising technology, my colleague Susan Bihler and I have written a two-part series on the Real Time Bidding ecosystem and its effects on online and offline media. The second part is a discussion... Continue reading
Posted Feb 14, 2011 at the Dynamist
For those of you interested in online advertising technology, my colleague Susan Bihler and I have written a two-part series on the Real Time Bidding ecosystem and its effects on online and offline media. The first part is a basic... Continue reading
Posted Feb 8, 2011 at the Dynamist