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Tzupancic1
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Twemoran, Thanks for the great link. Most interesting to read, "In the summer of 2001 the dramatic northerly retreat of sea ice in the East Greenland Current (EGC) united with the polynya to form what one could describe as an almost open continental shelf sea. This scenario, possibly unprecedented in recorded history, continued for the next four years and led to the NEW being described as having morphed into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) (Smith and Barber, 2007). In fact one could legitimately ask if there is still a NEW polynya or has it ceased to function as such? However in the summer of 2005, which corresponded to a new minimum in the extent of sea ice in the Arctic, the NEW returned, albeit smaller than usual. ... etc "unprecedented in recorded history" back in 2001.
Toggle Commented Jul 22, 2012 on Petermann calves again at Arctic Sea Ice
Looking further into the stability of the North East Water fast ice, I looked back at the Science paper from last August by Funder et al., 2010. "A 10,000-Year Record of Arctic Ocean Sea-Ice Variability—View from the Beach." http://www.sciencemag.org/content/333/6043/747.abstract In Figure 1C they include a graphic of this region that shows the fast ice in place at the 2007 minimum. However, in the figure legend they write "In late September, the land-fast ice was swept away, and until late November, the north coast was exposed to dense pack ice—a situation that has characterized the past decade (26)". 26 is Greenland Ice Chart 1999–2009 (Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark); available www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/gronland/iskort.htm. That's as far as I have gotten, but the implication is that this fast ice has routinely broken free. Still I'm curious about the details.
Toggle Commented Jul 22, 2012 on Petermann calves again at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks Neven, As I recall, last year there was less going on here. I was curious how stable this ice has been, and in particular, if the entire thing ever breaks up. I suspect that this year's breakup of this fast ice is just getting started.
Toggle Commented Jul 21, 2012 on Petermann calves again at Arctic Sea Ice
This is a bit off topic but related to Greenland. I have been following the large section of fast ice along the northeast coast of Greenland in the "North East Water" region. Checking the Modis images today I see that two large sections have just broken off as well as a third large section more to the south. The ice along the northeastern edge had begun to erode to a lesser extent on day 200. http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r02c03.2012203.terra.1km
Toggle Commented Jul 21, 2012 on Petermann calves again at Arctic Sea Ice
Looking at the Arctic Sea Ice melt,heat must be entering this system. The most likely source would be adjacent oceans.
Neven, Well said. Fact is key Arctic Sea Ice events the next few weeks are very interesting, but not clear, especially given the current change in the weather.
Chris, Looking at Euro I see a prominent low pressure system north of Alaska. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html I don't see an arctic dipole anamoly at all from the Euro forecast. Instead, it looks like the next weather period will be quite distinct from the dipole anamoly just experienced.
First off, L. Hamilton, I find your analyses most useful, and not at all naive. In fact, I carefully consider your calculations when I make my own personal 'guesses' about upcoming Arctic Sea Ice Area and Extent on various online forums. Nevertheless, in following the Arctic Sea Ice saga, as much directed to forum members than to you, it appears that so many multiple factors are interacting that no physical formula exists to accomodate how the arctic system is changing and responding as sea ice volume diminishes because so many operational factors remain undefined/uncharacterized. For example, it appears that the fundamental processes driving Arctic Sea Ice melt, ie. the processes that add heat to the Arctic Sea Ice system, are not well articulated. Okay, maybe it's just me being 'naive', and uneducated. If so, I would appreciate being enlightened. Is this system as complex as I perceive? How does it work?
The Modis view of the landfast ice in Northeast Greenland has been obscurred for a couple of weeks now so I thought some of you might be interested in the ASAR radar images of the situation below the clouds from DMI Center for Ocean and Ice; http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/northeastwater.uk.php http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/joekelbugt.uk.php
Chris, I have to say, I've been following your posts all summer long, and I have to say your predictions just don't seem to happen like you say. bro, we're all on the same side here and maybe I'm just a crazy Slovenian guy. But it is looking like things will end up around 4.7 or 4.8.
Toggle Commented Aug 30, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 18: ten yard line at Arctic Sea Ice
Rob Dekker's comments are much appreciated. And Neven, your contribution via this blog is quite substantial. Independent of the thickness or extent of the Arctic Sea Ice there is a context where events are evaluated and interpreted. What I am suggesting is that this context becomes dominated by uninformed voices. Why? Are the knowledgable reticent?
Toggle Commented Aug 30, 2011 on How thick is your ice? at Arctic Sea Ice
Off Thread, I understand, but I think this important issue is not being addressed. forwarding... I'd like to bump this thread a bit because I think the discussion earlier today is important. Scientific understanding is not well represented in the blogosphere and it is valuable, even essential, to have more of the scientifically literate venture into the climate denialosphere. I agree in particular with the comment from Timothy Chase above. I have been posting comments about the Arctic Sea Ice on a denialist dominated discussion forum for several years now and have learned a few things. If you should choose to go here, first thing (as Timothy mentioned), do not focus simply on your antagonist, but realize, when venturing into this lion's den, you will encounter an the unending stream of objections. But remember, any number of people click into such discussions to learn (on the forum that I frequent, the ratio of views to posts is 5 or 10 to 1). Consider; civility can score you points with the audience you really need to reach. Also, don't presume that logic is king. Denialists have a twisted logic all their own. Evidence and knowledge, however, do accumulate over time. Persistent participation adds up. It would definitely be useful to increase the knowledge content of any number of internet forums. I would conclude; this is not a task for the thin skinned, overly emotional, or easily discouraged, but getting informed content out on the net could have an important impact. Tom Z
Toggle Commented Aug 28, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 18: ten yard line at Arctic Sea Ice
I'd like to bump this thread a bit because I think the discussion earlier today is important. Scientific understanding is not well represented in the blogosphere and it is valuable, even essential, to have more of the scientifically literate venture into the climate denialosphere. I agree in particular with the comment from Timothy Chase above. I have been posting comments about the Arctic Sea Ice on a denialist dominated discussion forum for several years now and have learned a few things. If you should choose to go here, first thing (as Timothy mentioned), do not focus simply on your antagonist, but realize, when venturing into this lion's den, you will encounter an the unending stream of objections. But remember, any number of people click into such discussions to learn (on the forum that I frequent, the ratio of views to posts is 5 or 10 to 1). Consider; civility can score you points with the audience you really need to reach. Also, don't presume that logic is king. Denialists have a twisted logic all their own. Evidence and knowledge, however, do accumulate over time. Persistent participation adds up. It would definitely be useful to increase the knowledge content of any number of internet forums. I would conclude; this is not a task for the thin skinned, overly emotional, or easily discouraged, but getting informed content out on the net could have an important impact. Tom Z
Toggle Commented Aug 28, 2011 on How thick is your ice? at Arctic Sea Ice
Getting to the bottom line, ASAR images (from a few days ago) do show some fracturing of the remaining fast ice in northeastern Greenland, but, so far, most of this ice is hanging on.
Okay, that link appears to work. To find ASAR images to view the ice below the clouds select a Greenland region of interest and a date to be viewed. Then find the ASAR images.
Checking my post, I see the images are not loading. I found the radar images of Northeast Greenland here; http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/northeastwater.uk.php
Related to the fast ice in northeastern Greenland; cloud cover has prevented clear MODIS views for a number of days now. These overlapping radar images from ASAR (http://envisat.esa.int/instruments/asar/) show some fracturing of this residual fast ice. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/image_container.php http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/image_container.php
Chris, you wrote "H5 is like 28K feet in the air. Explain to me how that effects the Ice?" You lost me bro.
This particular Healy image caught my attention regarding the discussion of storm waves over-riding the sea ice; http://mgds.ldeo.columbia.edu/healy/reports/aloftcon/2011/20110823-1101.jpeg How would the sensors interpret this surface?
Toggle Commented Aug 24, 2011 on Flash melting at Arctic Sea Ice
Chris, I was looking at GFS 12z http://wxmaps.org/pix/hemi.vort.html The next 5 days here don't seem to show any conspicuous weather pattern.
A 'classic' dipole anomaly occurred earlier this summer.(The shift to a weather pattern dominated by low pressure north of Alaska is why I changed my sea ice extent guess; which a forum member asked about a while back). That said, I am inclined to agree that what we are observing now with the Arctic Sea Ice is a fundamental change that has not been seen before. Thus the explanations of the 2007 melt are useful to understand what happened back then, but the subsequent reduction in sea ice volume has changed the rules of the game.
Chris, I'm confused about your comments on the Arctic Dipole Anomaly. I thought that this phenomenon, which was a prominent weather feature back in 2007, was like what is described in this Wikipedia link; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_dipole_anomaly ie. high pressure north of Alaska and low pressure off of eastern Siberia.
This link shows the Healy's position, but is a number of hours behind real time; http://www.icefloe.net/uscgc-healy-track-map
Toggle Commented Aug 23, 2011 on Flash melting at Arctic Sea Ice
The USCGC Healy has moved into the general area being discussed here. You can click here to see what they are observing; http://mgds.ldeo.columbia.edu/healy/reports/aloftcon/2011/
Toggle Commented Aug 23, 2011 on Flash melting at Arctic Sea Ice
I originally guessed 4.5, but given events I think 4.7 to 4.8 is most likely for 2011.
Toggle Commented Aug 22, 2011 on Poll Results 2 at Arctic Sea Ice