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Does look like we're at the minimum unless there's serious winds or temperature anomalies that kick up. Don't see much forecast in in the next 7 days from http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/ NCEP GFS
PIOMAS September 2015
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: After an August volume drop that was above average (only 2008 and 2012 had larger drops in the 2006...
Off topic here, but this graph seems to indicate a deviation from the "fits and starts" of the total area. That line of descent is remarkably smooth, and the steepness of that descent seems to be stronger than other years. That -1.6M sq.km anomaly is lower than any in the past two years.
Shouldn't it be slowing down a bit by now?
Anyone else notice this trend?
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png
A wetter and warmer Arctic
Later this week I'll be posting more analysis of the current, very interesting melting season, but here's something that popped up in my mail box via Google Alerts. It's an article from Alaska Dispatch News on a scientific paper by Linette Boisvert from the University of Maryland and the NSIDC's...
Looking at http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/ there's a very large dominating low coming in late this week. Really big, and sitting right at the Pole. I can't imagine the winds associated with it are going help reduce the ice loss in the Basin.
ASI 2015 update 1: early start in Beaufort
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2014 period (NSIDC has...
What part have forest fires played in this years Arctic sea ice melt due to soot in the atmosphere blocking incidental solar radiation?
Meanwhile: The heat content of the oceans continues to go up inexorably - the variations year to year is ice are subject to weather, and atmospherics like the amount of soot. With certain weather conditions, it's apparent that the Arctic could be effectively free of sea ice in any given year. It's only a question of when this happens now.
Once long term sea ice is gone, the knock on effect year to year will dominate, leading to even greater likelihood of near ice free conditions during subsequent summer months.
We're looking straight at it; trying to pretend that a few years of reduced rate of reduction of Arctic sea ice is a reprieve is to deny all the data that's readily available.
ASI 2014 update 9: minimum around the corner
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
Thank goodness there's an influential Republican fundraiser who can clearly see that a 'hug' and working with the President of the United States in response to a disaster is clearly more important than any rank bribery, intimidation, RICO violations and lying under oath could ever be.
After all, Republicans have to keep their standards UP!
FL's Brian Ballard, top Romney fundraiser, dumps on 'horrific' Chris Christie before FL visit
@MarcACaputo Some of Florida's biggest money men will attend the state's various fundraisers for Gov. Rick Scott headlined this weekend by NJ Gov. Chris Christie, with one notable exception: Brian Ballard. "The guy, as a person, is horrific," said Ballard, a top lobbyist and finance chair of for...
Global warming potential of methane is based upon the expected operational lifetime of it, before it breaks down as a result of photolysis in combination with hydroxyl radicals.
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/4/4/044007/
Since amount of available solar energy is fixed, at some point higher concentrations of upper atmospheric methane should result in a non-linear dynamic, increasing the global warming potential of methane by extension of increasing its half life, and therefore persistence and global warming potential.
I have yet to see any study on this potential [and potentially disastrous] phenomenon. This dynamic is yet another potential positive feedback variable.
Anyone have any data?
Arctic methane: Russian researchers report
I vowed not to talk about this because it literally makes me sick to my stomach, but it's too important to deny. We all know about the vast deposits of methane clathrates on the Siberian continental shelf. They are kept in place by pressure and low temperatures. However, the temperatures (SAT as...
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