People are fixated on area/extent because edge melt has been the prevailing mode of ice loss. However 2012 demonstrated a new mode: Loss of ice by thinning to zero in parallel, or in sito melting. In 2013 and 2014 the onset of melt was delayed and the parallel in sito melt did not go to zero. This is the not the case in 2012. The melt as instigated by snow loss is two to three weeks ahead of 2012. There are going to be 20 extra days of high insolation on low albedo, snow free, ice. I am in agreement with Peter Wadhams. It is a little lonely here, but there is good company. At this point, this prediction still needs cooperation from the weather. Verg

http://aaronsenvironmental.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/ScreenHunter_64-Mar.-01-01.52.jpg Assuming that 1800's were similar to the 1980's, There would be a 40% chance of the ice under your object lasting 5 years, and perhaps a 20% chance for 10 years. However at current rates, only a 5% chance for 5 years.

"Climate models indicate that sea ice will decline more slowly than recent observations." http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b017744cf5360970d-pi http://i.imgur.com/rTztq27.png The NSIDC article is incredibly deceptive, you would think that we just had a couple of bad years(2007 & 2012). The graph they used obscures the observed in model runs that show false extents well below 6M in the 1900-2000 era. Its like they threw a tantrum and scribbled on the graph with a crayon. Vergent

CT SIA is 4.86. So, there is 2,590K of open water "air" in the "extent balloon". There is a lot of ice extent that does not have to melt.

ASIB has just been cited as a source and quoted in a Washington Post article. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/07/18/snow-and-arctic-ice-extent-plummet-suddenly-as-globe-bakes/ The losses to come in the Arctic Basin are unprecedented. The area can be best seen here; Credit danp and Lance-Modis Vergent

You can track Icebridge here: http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/

Icebridge just flew over the Lincoln Sea. Blog: http://hansen-greenland-2013.blogspot.com/

"Vergent Bill, Your Lance Modis link doesn't work." They are doing maintenance. Try, try again. It seems to work 50%.

The ice is always cracked. What has caused these cracks to open up so wide is the massive export of ice into the GS, Barents, etc. The area of the cracks is exactly equal to the exported area plus any area lost to pressure ridging.

Last year the cracks melted out a left open water that stayed open until the surrounding ice melted out completely. http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2012202.terra.4km.jpg Lance Modis