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Vergent Bill
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People are fixated on area/extent because edge melt has been the prevailing mode of ice loss. However 2012 demonstrated a new mode: Loss of ice by thinning to zero in parallel, or in sito melting.
In 2013 and 2014 the onset of melt was delayed and the parallel in sito melt did not go to zero. This is the not the case in 2012. The melt as instigated by snow loss is two to three weeks ahead of 2012. There are going to be 20 extra days of high insolation on low albedo, snow free, ice.
I am in agreement with Peter Wadhams. It is a little lonely here, but there is good company. At this point, this prediction still needs cooperation from the weather.
Verg
2015 SIPN Sea Ice Outlook: June report
The first Sea Ice Outlook of this year has been published. The SIO is organized by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (as part of the Arctic research program 'Study of Environmental Arctic Change', or SEARCH), and is a compilation of projections for the September 2015 Arctic sea ice extent, based o...
http://aaronsenvironmental.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/ScreenHunter_64-Mar.-01-01.52.jpg
Assuming that 1800's were similar to the 1980's, There would be a 40% chance of the ice under your object lasting 5 years, and perhaps a 20% chance for 10 years. However at current rates, only a 5% chance for 5 years.
Research for a novel
Here's a question I received some time ago from a reader of this blog who is in the process of writing a novel. I thought it'd be a nice way to pass our time while we wait for the latest PIOMAS update. My answer is basically the either/or image on the right, but maybe you come up with other ide...
"Climate models indicate that sea ice will decline more slowly than recent observations."
http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b017744cf5360970d-pi
http://i.imgur.com/rTztq27.png
The NSIDC article is incredibly deceptive, you would think that we just had a couple of bad years(2007 & 2012). The graph they used obscures the observed in model runs that show false extents well below 6M in the 1900-2000 era. Its like they threw a tantrum and scribbled on the graph with a crayon.
Vergent
Are scientists conservative about sea ice?
An interesting entry on the NSIDC Icelights blog (hat-top to GreenOctopus) that I also indirectly discussed a couple of months ago: Are scientists conservative about sea ice? Guest post by Walt Meier, NSIDC Scientist Arctic sea ice set a record minimum extent in September 2012, far below the...
CT SIA is 4.86. So, there is 2,590K of open water "air" in the "extent balloon". There is a lot of ice extent that does not have to melt.
Second storm
There's another storm brewing in the Arctic, the second this year after PAC-2013, the persistent Arctic cyclone that stayed in place for weeks on end and caused the first half of the melting season to be very slow. And also the second storm after last year's Great Arctic Cyclone, the iconic im...
ASIB has just been cited as a source and quoted in a Washington Post article.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/07/18/snow-and-arctic-ice-extent-plummet-suddenly-as-globe-bakes/
The losses to come in the Arctic Basin are unprecedented. The area can be best seen here;
Credit danp and Lance-Modis
Vergent
Crowd-Source Prediction of September Sea Ice Extent (July report & call for August predictions)
In mid-June through early July, participants on the Arctic Sea Ice (ASI) blog posted 82 individual predictions for the mean NSIDC September Arctic sea ice extent. The median value of these 82 predictions was 3.2 million km2, with an interquartile range (approximately the middle 50% of prediction...
You can track Icebridge here:
http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/
Crack is bad for you (and sea ice)
The previous pun - cracks of dawn - was wearing off, and the comment section was getting full, so here's a new pun and blog post dedicated to the cracking event that started in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas a couple of weeks ago, and then moved on to the multi-year ice against the Canadian Archi...
Icebridge just flew over the Lincoln Sea.
Blog:
http://hansen-greenland-2013.blogspot.com/
Crack is bad for you (and sea ice)
The previous pun - cracks of dawn - was wearing off, and the comment section was getting full, so here's a new pun and blog post dedicated to the cracking event that started in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas a couple of weeks ago, and then moved on to the multi-year ice against the Canadian Archi...
"Vergent Bill,
Your Lance Modis link doesn't work."
They are doing maintenance. Try, try again. It seems to work 50%.
Crack is bad for you (and sea ice)
The previous pun - cracks of dawn - was wearing off, and the comment section was getting full, so here's a new pun and blog post dedicated to the cracking event that started in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas a couple of weeks ago, and then moved on to the multi-year ice against the Canadian Archi...
The ice is always cracked. What has caused these cracks to open up so wide is the massive export of ice into the GS, Barents, etc.
The area of the cracks is exactly equal to the exported area plus any area lost to pressure ridging.
Crack is bad for you (and sea ice)
The previous pun - cracks of dawn - was wearing off, and the comment section was getting full, so here's a new pun and blog post dedicated to the cracking event that started in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas a couple of weeks ago, and then moved on to the multi-year ice against the Canadian Archi...
Last year the cracks melted out a left open water that stayed open until the surrounding ice melted out completely.
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2012202.terra.4km.jpg
Lance Modis
Crack is bad for you (and sea ice)
The previous pun - cracks of dawn - was wearing off, and the comment section was getting full, so here's a new pun and blog post dedicated to the cracking event that started in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas a couple of weeks ago, and then moved on to the multi-year ice against the Canadian Archi...
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Nov 18, 2012
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