Zelfs met één oor hoor ik het ijs smelten.

So, a rare question from an original lurker: Lodger ... could the wave action from the usual series of storms be sufficient to destroy the fresh-water lens over a single season if the CAB was essentially ice free some September? Thx

Bill F., From a lurker who mostly learns and is grateful to many of the regular posters here, ... a rare interjection to say: your post on the three classes of variables was a most useful and enlightening explanation. Many thanks, Paul

Mostly a lurker and learner. Once again thanks to Neven and all of you who share so much valuable knowledge. A question: Is there useful data from the refreeze behaviour of surrounding seas (Hudson is likely too shallow and too far south to be useful) to indicate whether a mostly ice-free central Arctic Basin would have storms sufficiently frequent and severe as to delay/diminish refreeze by stirring up deep, warmer, water? Thanks in advance

Cincinnatus, Well said. Your unwillingness to "bet your degree of certainty" is "the unconditional edict on the quality of your thinking." And, "stick to the ponies"

Cincinnatus Regarding Hudson's Bay. How good a chance, 2-1, 10-1, 100-1 ? You pick the odds and I'll happily give you a wager. And I'll offer to split my winnings -- if I win -- with Neven to defray his costs of the blog.

Hi Werther, Long time lurker/learner with a question. Can the melt pooling fraction be determined only for those higher-latitude areas that aren't destined to melt out anyway? And, if so, is is likely to provide a better forecast of Sept min? Thanks in advance

Multi-year lurker here with ongoing appreciation to Neven and all of you who do so much to help the rest of us learn and understand. With respect to the average thickness calculated from Piomas/area and Wipneus' map of same, .... clearly thinner ice is vulnerable to significantly greater damage/destruction from mechanical action, storms, waves, collisions, fracturing. This has been discussed at various times over the last couple of years. Question: is there sufficient correlation to determine that, for instance, all ice of, say, less than one-metre thickness on June 1 fails to survive the summer? Apologies if this is too simplistic an approach to such a complex and dynamic system but overwinter thickness in the CAB does seem to have the potential to represent yet another tipping point.

If you haven't already seen Jim Pettit's powerful new graph -- a version of 'death spiral' -- but this time based on PIOMAS, then a visit to https://sites.google.com/site/pettitclimategraphs/home is recommended.

Fine work, fascinating discussion, many thanks L. Hamilton et al. And now for truly naive question. What might be the physical process that would cause the summer ice decline to 'flatten out' as per a Gompertz model, rather than steepen, as an ice-free state was approached?

Larry, Is there a link to your new Gompertz model based on the NSIDC? Thanks

Polarstern is at 88 http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=DBLK

Nick, appreciate both comments and was aware of the soviet convoys (actually saw one leave Murmansk back in the 80s) ... but I take it that you think the deep-water NW Passage route will be as "ice free" or not as the NSR with the retreat of the cap; i.e. that the ice will not linger longer in the Cdn archipelago thanks

It's a little intimidating for this lurker who is struggling to wade through the math and the science. So, first of all, thanks to all of you whose posts are engaging, enlightening and (often) funny. And now a query. For centuries, the idea that skirting the permanent summer pack via the narrow and navigationally difficult NW Passage was the hoped for maritime 'short-cut' between Asia and Europe. Given the pattern of rapid reduction in extent and the deeper water offshore, does not the NE Passge (i.e. north of Russia) to the icefree port of Murmansk seems a more likely route for significant traffic? I realize both were 'open' the last couple of summers but 'open' for small vessels isn't the same as a feasible route for significant maritime traffic. Thanks in advance.

Petermann B is doing lazy circles. http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=47557

Many, perhaps most, of those who followed and contributed knew far more than I about the Arctic, science, and the complex and dynamic changes we have imposed on our planet. I've learned a great deal, am very grateful and believe that you, Neven, and many others have done a wonderful and valuable service. I lived for years (no longer) in the Yukon and spent some time in the high Arctic -- including one late-summer, seven-hour Canadian ice patrol flight when all there seemed to be was ice as far as the eye could see in every direction. So, many thanks for all your enormous effort and for sharing your knowledge and insights. Some winter I hope to skate the Elfstedentocht

my apologies for not being able to find it but .... can someone point me to ... or repost a plot of the quadratic trend referred to by Phil263

Whether or not she is singing (and the low points of extent and/or volume have been reached for the 2010 season) I'd like to add my voice to the chorus praising Neven and others who have made this a facinating, informative, and funny blog. I've learning a great deal and have been very impressed by the careful and impressive examination of a very complex and important issue. With that said, I would be very interesting in predictions; not so much about whether and when the next 'records' will be set or the geometry of trend lines but rather the larger, perhaps more ominous, 'what's next?' Many thanks to all

Off topic but for the lurkers among us who learn much here, I curious as to your views on the Delft study published yesterday http://www.tudelft.nl/live/pagina.jsp?id=7a6c3d15-1c1e-4869-b378-840a000c6803&lang=en ... which strikes me as interesting as much because it underscores just how little is known and how widely estimates vary as anything else

I've been an interested watcher for a while here. I've learned a lot. Great blog, wonderful input and obviously a lot of work by some very intelligent, thoughtful (and sometimes very funny) contributors Please don't spoil it with the ad hominum attacks.