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Bill Conerly
The consultant who connects the dots between economics . . . and business decisions.
Interests: economics, business planning, economic contingency planning
Recent Activity
Many people are reading my article over, Jordan Peterson's Lessons for Business Leaders: You Need Both Liberals and Conservatives. Quick summary: The labels liberal and conservative refer not just to Democrats and Republicans, but to people with certain personality... Continue reading
Posted Mar 7, 2018 at Businomics Blog
Business leaders make decisions in an uncertain economy. Technology, social attitudes, government policies and competition are also uncertain. This interview, with a poker player who touches on football among other issues, displays wisdom about the choices that executives must make. Continue reading
Posted Feb 20, 2018 at Businomics Blog
The Wall Street Journal has an interesting article about cup holders, their expanding size and number. Some years back I used cup holders as an illustration of how important work is not about materials--steel and coal--but about engineering and design.... Continue reading
Posted Feb 16, 2018 at Businomics Blog
“Finding qualified workers now exceeds taxes and regulations as the top concern for small businesses,” said Juanita Duggan, head of the National Federation of Independent Business in their latest report on small business optimism. My previous post shows videos on... Continue reading
Posted Feb 13, 2018 at Businomics Blog
CEOs across the country are telling me that employee retention and recruitment is their biggest challenge. To help business leaders cope with the challenge of employee turnover and employee hiring, I have produced a series of videos on today's staffing... Continue reading
Posted Jan 25, 2018 at Businomics Blog
In the depths of the last recession, I met a business person who had just had the most productive six weeks in his career. It was hard to believe, so I asked how he had done it. “I stopped watching... Continue reading
Posted Jan 10, 2018 at Businomics Blog
That's the intriguing question asked by a New York University team. Their project, called Her Opponent, was to stage a debate using the words and gestures of the candidates, but portrayed by people of opposite sexes. They expected to see... Continue reading
Posted Mar 8, 2017 at Businomics Blog
This obituary of Kenneth Arrow is worth reading by anyone interested in economics or ideas in general. Much of mathematical economics promises far more than it delivers, but Arrow's work has proved to be of enduring value. Learn more at... Continue reading
Posted Feb 25, 2017 at Businomics Blog
Penn Jillette talks about the tech revolution in his Reason Magazine interview: I was one of the people talking at [the Massachusetts Institute of Technology] in the early '90s about how computers were going to change things…. I couldn't predict... Continue reading
Posted Dec 22, 2016 at Businomics Blog
I testified before the Oregon legislature regarding uncertainty about the economy and state revenue forecast. The entire session, including two great fellow economists, Tim Duy and Andrew Dyke, can be seen here. Or watch just me below: Continue reading
Posted Dec 15, 2016 at Businomics Blog
One of the best explanations of free-trade motivations for Brexit is in this Reason interview with Daniel Hannan. This Englishman said, “Your founders had someone very like Donald Trump in mind when they designed all these checks and balances.” Continue reading
Posted Nov 28, 2016 at Businomics Blog
What will cause the next recession? In 2014 I wrote The Next Recession: Cause and Timing and said, “The Federal Reserve’s unwinding of its stimulus is the most likely cause of the next recession. For a while Europe was the... Continue reading
Posted Nov 22, 2016 at Businomics Blog
In my Forbes article, President Trump's Policies Will Likely Slow Economic Growth Over The Next Two Years, I expressed skepticism about Republican willingness to actually repeal Obamacare. Now the nation's top free-market health care expert comes to a similar conclusion,... Continue reading
Posted Nov 17, 2016 at Businomics Blog
Is there a small competitor about to clean your business’s clock? Will your sales be Amazoned, iPhoned or Ubered? Is there a Leicester in your league? The Leicester City Football Club just won the Barclay’s English Premier League, the world’s... Continue reading
Posted May 2, 2016 at Businomics Blog
We're still months away from the election, but my favorite political forecaster, Larry Sabato, has drilled down to important realities in The Electoral College: The Only Thing That Matters. He notes that it's too early to call the contest, but... Continue reading
Posted Apr 1, 2016 at Businomics Blog
Listen to yesterday's Prairie Home Companion song on romantic statistics: scroll down to "Statistics" after clicking here. Happy Valentine's Day, readers. Bill Continue reading
Posted Feb 14, 2016 at Businomics Blog
I often hear commentators saying that we are already in a recession. This could be the case because the data always come out with a time lag. The official arbiter of recessions, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the non-profit... Continue reading
Posted Jan 10, 2016 at Businomics Blog
I don't incorporate much politics into my economic forecasts. I'm no better than average at predicting electoral outcomes. Even if I knew who was going to win, I wouldn't know what that person would do as president. (I didn't expect... Continue reading
Posted Dec 17, 2015 at Businomics Blog
Steve Levitt, author of Freakonomics, gave a presentation on big data in corporations. It should be watched by all CEOs and wanna-be CEOs. It's discouraging in that it shows many companies' unwillingness to use the data they have, but it's... Continue reading
Posted Oct 21, 2015 at Businomics Blog
As a guy who pushes numbers around, I've been a spreadsheet power user since the days of Lotus 1-2-3. But I've learned tons of new Excel tips in the past year by subscribing (for free) to Francis Hayes' Spreadsheet Tips... Continue reading
Posted Sep 18, 2015 at Businomics Blog
The most interesting pollster is Larry Sabato, who recently had this to say about the presidential candidates: ... most of them are human tape recorders. On the top 25 or 30 issues, each has memorized a paragraph or two; mention... Continue reading
Posted Sep 3, 2015 at Businomics Blog
Most of my work is going onto my blog. Here are my recent posts that have gotten a lot of attention: What's Next For The Stock Market After A Big Drop? Manufacturing Has Come Back And More Gains To... Continue reading
Posted Aug 28, 2015 at Businomics Blog
This is why I don't watch TV News. (Hat tip to Eric Fruits, Econ International Blog) Continue reading
Posted Mar 29, 2015 at Businomics Blog
We've heard it (and I've said it) thousands of times: correlation does not mean causation. Yet we still make the mistake (and I do mean "we"). Tyler Vigen has developed a correlation machine. He has scraped lots and lots of... Continue reading
Posted Sep 21, 2014 at Businomics Blog
The AP has a story about a robot hitchhiking across Canada. This seems very important, though I don't quite know what it all means. Continue reading
Posted Aug 18, 2014 at Businomics Blog