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Hey Phil! So I did your homework and found 3 similar businesses to UA and did analysis on them. I was not sure how to get a 15 year analysis, so I did the 10 year analysis instead. NKE (Nike) ROIC 14.5% ROIC (5 years) 19.0% BVPS 13.30% Cash 2.02% Sales 8.77% EPS 12.62% Estimated Growth Rate 8.0% Analyst Growth Rate 11.9% COLM (Columbia) ROIC 6.7% ROIC (5 years) 12.5% BVPS 18.39% Cash 12.21% Sales 8.15% EPS 3.23% Estimated Growth Rate 10% Analyst Growth Rate 8.6% HBI (Hanes) ROIC 2% ROIC (5 years) N/A BVPS -19.04% Cash -5.10% Sales -2.77% EPS -11.31% Estimated Growth Rate -7% Analyst Growth Rate 7.5% It seems like there are no established companies that can withstand a 20% growth rate in this industry. From what I’ve seen, there is no proven track record that this is possible yet. For that reason, the chances of UA to do it for a whole 10-15 years is unlikely. With that said, if I wanted to buy this stock, the growth rate needs to be adjusted a lot more conservatively.
Toggle Commented Mar 12, 2010 on Phil Town Comments on Under Armour at Phil Town
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Mar 11, 2010