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My 4.1 extent forecast for 2018 was wrong by a long way out. Has it has been for some years and correct on others. Best never to guess the yearly result and instead watch the trend. Onwards to 2019 :)
If aerosols offset 23% of the value what percentage do more and more planes flying over Greenland and the Arctic do by making contrails /clouds ? Is it bigger or smaller factor than aerosols? Also planes emit a large amount of CO2 currently at the same time, so that has to be examined too.
Toggle Commented Sep 4, 2018 on Aerosols and Arctic sea ice loss at Arctic Sea Ice
In hindsight much to do about nothing on the larger scale and interested to find out why it happened on the microscale. The unusual NAO? Or winds or whatever? Good to find out why and how often it happens. On the macroscale this year has been average for the 2010s or slightly higher up in the Antarctic. More interestingly the Antarctic is still low since the flip in 2015. Nobody so far has explained this. Finally. the last year had a very low Arctic maximum but average lowest extent in the summer. So we still cannot link winters to summers on one season. What happened to all the melt ponds to help melt? I still think there might be a bit of late season melt in this year.
Toggle Commented Sep 4, 2018 on Circumnavigating Greenland at Arctic Sea Ice
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Sep 4, 2018